Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fc6dd6442285bcad26fbabf19da0a9b2f5483599e33f4ee72d6b7abec98ef32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 1c | 1,156$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 49c | 851.1$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 51c | 740.68$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.75 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 661.3$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 628.97$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 54c | 595.55$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.55 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 420.91$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 412$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 375.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 61c | 332.95$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 285.06$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 46c | 271.63$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 56c | 263.93$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.13 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 50c | 261.71$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.86 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 256.75$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 48c | 238.49$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 49c | 217.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 51c | 198.53$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 191.7$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 33c | 180.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 52c | 178.75$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 66c | 168.51$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 49c | 161$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 157.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 49c | 153.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 63c | 151$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…d08cbacked Yes | 67c | 150.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 54c | 139.16$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 34c | 133.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 132$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 126.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 44c | 126.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 120.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 48c | 104.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 61c | 100.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 92.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 60c | 92.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 16c | 83.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 23c | 83.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 80.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 40c | 74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 72.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 50c | 72.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 32c | 72.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 48c | 72.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 43c | 65.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 54c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 63.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 53c | 63.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked No | 41c | 61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 59.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 50c | 57.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 55c | 57.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 31c | 57.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 53c | 56.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 21c | 56.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 55.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 58c | 54.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8580…3f7cbacked Yes | 42c | 54.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 52c | 51.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 50.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 70c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x036b…93bdbacked Yes | 52c | 47.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 42c | 47.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 27c | 46.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 55c | 43.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 39c | 41.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 26c | 39.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 51c | 39.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 51c | 38.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 50c | 37.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 60c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.