Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7c4a11c1fa040fc3c9345f6e69cf6ccb5cd42e0e5636a9423fd9d6b2bb862e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 21c | 2,052$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 31c | 1,395$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.28 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 26c | 712.52$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.13 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 77c | 692.06$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 661.37$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 31c | 622.36$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.42 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 619.61$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 599.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 499.28$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 425.52$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 417.44$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 24c | 415.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 21c | 390.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 27c | 368.52$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.46 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 36c | 332.46$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 318.14$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 301$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 293.12$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 270.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 18c | 267.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f2…507fbacked No | 75c | 236.41$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 22c | 236$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 225$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 77c | 220$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 220$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…ecadbacked Yes | 16c | 219.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8580…3f7cbacked Yes | 21c | 212.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…559fbacked Yes | 30c | 199.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 188.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 188.09$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 16c | 180.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 179.63$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 24c | 178.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 9c | 171.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 161$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 152.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 30c | 148.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 16c | 145$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 144.64$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 21c | 142.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 69c | 137.94$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 22c | 130.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 22c | 122.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 120.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 94.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 90.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 74c | 86.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 23c | 86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 12c | 84.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 82.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 75c | 81.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 34c | 80.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 64c | 73.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036b…93bdbacked Yes | 21c | 66.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 76c | 65.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked No | 77c | 64.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed Yes | 21c | 62.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 21c | 61.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 60.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 54.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 25c | 53.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 80c | 50.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 70c | 50.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 49.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 48.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 36c | 48.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 23c | 46.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 37c | 45.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 24c | 43.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39c…91a3backed Yes | 23c | 43.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 79c | 42.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 78c | 42.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 40c | 36.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…a1b2backed Yes | 29c | 36.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 72c | 36.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 74c | 35.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 64c | 35.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 31.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 74c | 27.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 77c | 26.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 26.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.