Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb93be6347d5d1fdbf3440a58f2fba41862a16f3f552984f25ff09d8a4dafc20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 1,023$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 16c | 642.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 12c | 587.62$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 30c | 425.06$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.59 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 76c | 322.99$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…280cbacked No | 78c | 236.44$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 209.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 204$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 14c | 177.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 70c | 152.32$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 71c | 141.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 21c | 138.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 134.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 118.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 11c | 104.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 104$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 22c | 103.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 79c | 96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 86.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 19c | 81.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 27c | 80.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 73.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 18c | 72.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 78c | 71.47$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 77c | 71.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 68.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…9f69backed Yes | 21c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 58.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 21c | 57.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 71c | 56.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 31c | 53.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 35c | 48.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 80c | 43.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 41.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 78c | 40.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 35c | 40.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 38.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 31c | 37.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 33.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4387…afb3backed No | 73c | 23.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 21.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…7acbbacked No | 75c | 18.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…a66abacked No | 72c | 16.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 72c | 15.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C or higher on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.