Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23e5e2cec60799fd42383443b9d4980647403c246cce5d627dd3abded99d8cbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 26c | 755.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f7…1c8fbacked No | 79c | 517.03$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed No | 76c | 506.07$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 11c | 457.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 51c | 333.87$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 11c | 321.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 315.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 268.93$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.21 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 68c | 266.32$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.33 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 245.37$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 22c | 228.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 8c | 224.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 199.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 26c | 183.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 24c | 179.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 51c | 150.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 144.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 136.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 29c | 124.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 61c | 121$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 25c | 120.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 19c | 108.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 17c | 107.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 104$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 13c | 98.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 95.52$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 93.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 60c | 93.26$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 92.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 33c | 89.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 13c | 88.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…9f69backed Yes | 13c | 87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 21c | 82.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 81.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 23c | 80.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 19c | 78.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…79a9backed No | 79c | 76.34$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 73.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 63c | 72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 34c | 70.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 65.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 19c | 64.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 63c | 61.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…7481backed Yes | 35c | 59.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 58.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 31c | 58.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 56c | 57.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 35c | 55.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 54.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 30c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 45c | 50.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 44c | 45.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 64c | 44.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 23c | 44.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 29c | 41.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 48c | 39.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…2f9abacked Yes | 27c | 37.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 42c | 36.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 34c | 34.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 71c | 33.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee1…aaaabacked Yes | 36c | 30.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 75c | 30.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 34c | 29.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 74c | 29.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 27.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 25.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 69c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 80c | 22.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4080…4f50backed No | 77c | 22.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 22.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…a061backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 19.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 70c | 17.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 69c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 78c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C or higher on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.