Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb347ee2a59086291c94e605be52f4a5542483b87ba4fc3fe5c3c5bbc68ef055b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 3c | 590$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -69%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 41c | 447.82$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.21 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 38c | 400$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.22 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 362.52$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 60c | 349.81$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.5 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 312.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 47c | 298.82$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.75 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 259.31$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 215.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 47c | 212.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 181.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 175.54$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 166.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 144.48$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 75c | 138.31$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 79c | 136.93$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 60c | 116.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 47c | 112.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30af…2c34backed Yes | 46c | 112.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 110.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 105$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 104$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 45c | 101.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 101$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 46c | 98.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 49c | 92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 46c | 91.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 86.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 75c | 86.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 86.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd46…4c7dbacked No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 13c | 78.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 77.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 72.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 40c | 71.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 63c | 70.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 60c | 69.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 40c | 69.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 58c | 68.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 66.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 52c | 64.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 61.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 43c | 60.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 60.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 57.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 37c | 57.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…7481backed Yes | 40c | 54.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 28c | 54.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 59c | 51.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 54c | 48.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 47.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 46.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 78c | 44.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 58c | 44.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 35c | 42.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 40.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 55c | 39.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 53c | 39.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 65c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308b…35e9backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 42c | 35.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 57c | 34.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee1…aaaabacked Yes | 36c | 30.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 43c | 27.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b9…90d0backed No | 43c | 27.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 67c | 25.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 46c | 23.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 22.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 59c | 20.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed Yes | 58c | 20.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…64d0backed Yes | 76c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C or higher on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.