Dota2 · resolved market
Will any match last over 70 minutes at BLAST Slam VII?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbac457844a7c4372f195cc5cf81eda0add4d10dd43a91c4bcbcfeaf4f5e9fbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 26c | 3,988$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.45 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 72c | 2,222$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.16 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 76c | 1,454$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.91 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed No | 38c | 925.58$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.82 | 259 | 35.5%92 W · 167 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked No | 18c | 481.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.32 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Yes | 77c | 302.59$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.56 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e69…7f76backed Yes | 56c | 257.61$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.61 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed No | 30c | 251$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 73c | 230$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa261…da11backed No | 27c | 220$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 45c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Yes | 53c | 177.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.01 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1a…de1abacked Yes | 51c | 124.41$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…f91abacked No | 23c | 122$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2d…feb5backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…e5c2backed No | 26c | 57.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Yes | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.