Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbb8d76a287b0d24c159f8c6a18cc59b36591f98d631c9acdbc3bc5842d6a21c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 6c | 339.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1c…90d2backed Yes | 74c | 149.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 31c | 135$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.65 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 133.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…0969backed No | 65c | 131.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffcf…67b0backed Yes | 57c | 130.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 127.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 72c | 120.67$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.88 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 118.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 40c | 102.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 38c | 100.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…5f61backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 85.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 73c | 82.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…5473backed Yes | 77c | 81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 76.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 67c | 73.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…0a3ebacked Yes | 76c | 67.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…0de3backed No | 36c | 66.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 32c | 65.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 30c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 61.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 23c | 55.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…7c49backed Yes | 74c | 52.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…55fbbacked Yes | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414f…21afbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 31c | 45.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…7107backed Yes | 70c | 42.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 33c | 40.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc808…fffebacked No | 35c | 38.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 37.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 32c | 37.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 66c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 65c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 65c | 32.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc05…9859backed No | 71c | 27.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed No | 64c | 23.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.