Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbe2c8558c800164d1edcefcc40c2e5243124ba7e47fae5f9b5e3968d5ad58a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb10…0e28backed Yes | 0c | 10,031$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,594$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 61c | 460.73$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.72 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6e…a1ebbacked Yes | 41c | 306.93$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 295.55$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.72 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 37c | 213.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 208$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 59c | 206.79$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 199.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 62c | 176.41$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 38c | 170.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 161.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 63c | 160.19$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 156$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 38c | 148.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 37c | 141$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 39c | 138.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 60c | 136.21$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 108.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 38c | 108$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 56c | 106.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 41c | 104.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 42c | 96.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 42c | 95.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 94.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 38c | 85.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed Yes | 41c | 84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…a1adbacked Yes | 37c | 82.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 79.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 52c | 76.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 63c | 74.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Yes | 35c | 71.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 70.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 61c | 69.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 58.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 60c | 58.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 42c | 55.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 62c | 51.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…0893backed No | 61c | 51.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 59c | 47.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a9…f80ebacked Yes | 34c | 47.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 63c | 44.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 44.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 43.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 42c | 40.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 38c | 38.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 60c | 38.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 39c | 37.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 40c | 36.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 42c | 36.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec9…9d4bbacked No | 65c | 36.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 38c | 33.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…6957backed Yes | 40c | 33.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 37c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 44c | 26.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 26.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…c855backed Yes | 38c | 25.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 63c | 25.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bc…e46bbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 19.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 63c | 17.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 59c | 17.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…bec8backed No | 60c | 16.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 16.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 67c | 15.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on May 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.