TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on May 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,169
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,762

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,169 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa4e9…0208backed No64c589.85$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.638947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes59c431.54$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.4829520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No39c339.59$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.834,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f0…20febacked No5c314.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.721516.6%10 W · 141 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a2…c0c5backed Yes65c309.45$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.454463.6%28 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes44c283$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.5917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes43c212.5$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.81,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ab0…9578backed No44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes41c199.87$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.9216045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes40c196.24$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.741,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7af…0158backed Yes47c189.68$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.991435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes38c186.27$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.5516046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No58c183.39$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.563,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No62c159.74$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.512,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31de…03ffbacked Yes48c150$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.014991.8%45 W · 4 L+18.2wins+0.37per pick55cpaid+80.1%equal weight77+0.25 edge/pick
0xf9da…f9debacked Yes37c150$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.595993.2%55 W · 4 L+21.7wins+0.37per pick56cpaid+80.4%equal weight79+0.26 edge/pick
0x62b3…4849backed Yes42c149.97$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed Yes45c149.88$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.9318242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No54c148.78$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9230722.1%68 W · 239 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No37c146.41$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0338258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No57c143.05$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4286173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes48c139.27$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0413943.9%61 W · 78 L-12.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes42c138.6$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.971,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes52c126$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.485,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed Yes55c123.11$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5225447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed Yes44c120$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.224539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No43c99.81$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07fd…54c7backed Yes44c99.6$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.121546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes41c97.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.829,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x376a…d270backed Yes80c95.6$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.374889.6%43 W · 5 L+14.9wins+0.31per pick59cpaid+78%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes53c91.12$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.839,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes56c86.14$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes29c82.13$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.518,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes36c81$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8486226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb69b…368ebacked No73c75$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7527560%165 W · 110 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No52c74.77$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8834250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No50c73.41$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5941258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No59c72.58$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8262770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes40c71.51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8845236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No61c70.42$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7459440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d21…b569backed No49c70$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4814158.2%82 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes44c68.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1866926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No61c67.94$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.313,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No60c66.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.424,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No60c65$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3972466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cf9…6e4ebacked Yes48c65$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.83256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb7f…0abbbacked No55c62.34$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.318948.1%91 W · 98 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No59c60.83$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8921268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes50c60.21$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.212,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3028737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked No59c59.07$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8517744.6%79 W · 98 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No58c59$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.222,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed Yes51c58.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9454857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes52c58.34$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.156959.4%41 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes53c56.7$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.719848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd69d…80cdbacked Yes55c54.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.82650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes41c52.84$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.112,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes40c52.04$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.157,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes46c51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6724238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No42c51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3139158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa139…5bc2backed Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1911240.2%45 W · 67 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.528456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.052835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2e18…dd00backed Yes51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5576…59e9backed Yes41c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4917033.5%57 W · 113 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No43c49.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4739159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No43c49.61$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.143859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No58c48.28$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2897570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes38c46.46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.861,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No41c45.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7835058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No62c43.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9298571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No61c42.12$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7293734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No59c42.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No54c41.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8419648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x337d…6c88backed Yes60c41.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.67944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0066…a1adbacked No43c38.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.63425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No65c38.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2526958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x39c0…ae83backed Yes44c36.54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4612223%28 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb198…6291backed Yes40c36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.613340.6%54 W · 79 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No43c34.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1797…080abacked No58c34.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-76.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5005…620cbacked No59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205961%36 W · 23 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick73cpaid-17.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6719…6957backed Yes41c33.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.941457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+30.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3024…8ecebacked Yes44c33.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7817237.2%64 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No54c33.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.899963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No42c32.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7163656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c77…ff72backed No63c31.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204571.1%32 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x353b…e535backed Yes70c31.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.266547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No51c31.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.032,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.534,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb10…0e28backed Yes67c31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-78.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6529740.7%121 W · 176 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes37c29.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.93,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7135…212fbacked No50c28.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4f5…ee83backed Yes52c28.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.71875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+55.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No55c27.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2934369.4%238 W · 105 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf136…f66abacked Yes55c27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.155236.5%19 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No53c25.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.612,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No59c25.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.11,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.