TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Georgia Southern Eagles vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Georgia Southern Eaglesof Georgia Southern Eagles, Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,830

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,902 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44b9…0598backed Georgia Southern Eagles40c6,800$2,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,113.584035%14 W · 26 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-39.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers55c4,849$2,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,678.5712354.5%67 W · 56 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Georgia Southern Eagles50c2,256$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.0961652.8%325 W · 291 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8307…ad90backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers3c1,700$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561048.7%9 W · 95 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers43c1,630$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.461,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Georgia Southern Eagles61c1,369$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.611,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…3f41backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers27c1,103$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-56.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers38c989.99$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.841,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Georgia Southern Eagles53c874.06$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.071,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ae…f107backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers28c844.29$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.342327.2%115 W · 308 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers50c832$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41640147.6%191 W · 210 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers53c788.17$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.181,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Georgia Southern Eagles70c733.1$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.857839.7%31 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers50c714.76$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.4812,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Georgia Southern Eagles48c708.84$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.672,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x611a…e63ebacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers8c700$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553810.5%4 W · 34 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers36c570.35$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.512,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Georgia Southern Eagles80c554.25$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.269771.1%69 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers46c539.18$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.015,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers47c532.87$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.641,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers39c514.95$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014021.4%30 W · 110 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x004e…90f8backed Georgia Southern Eagles44c474.28$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.2819237%71 W · 121 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fb…7c45backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers70c451.13$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers34c450.73$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.768234.1%28 W · 54 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-41.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Georgia Southern Eagles72c435.24$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.511,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers60c418.3$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.91,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers50c410.96$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.734,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers13c400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5213313.5%18 W · 115 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Georgia Southern Eagles43c399.99$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.992,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Georgia Southern Eagles60c398$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.661,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Georgia Southern Eagles59c368.04$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.182,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a0…7303backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers7c302.24$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.81933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8c…237dbacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers58c298.09$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.0617546.3%81 W · 94 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf35a…6617backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0caf…abfebacked Georgia Southern Eagles77c259.94$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.941258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a7…90f4backed Georgia Southern Eagles77c255$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Georgia Southern Eagles40c250.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.7512642.1%53 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers8c250$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.58814.8%13 W · 75 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Georgia Southern Eagles56c228.92$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5673549.1%361 W · 374 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x471d…0c2abacked Georgia Southern Eagles73c220.55$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.42771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick73cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281478.8%13 W · 134 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Georgia Southern Eagles51c197.1$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.222,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers59c188.6$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.682860.7%17 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers57c180$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.62040%8 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Georgia Southern Eagles57c174.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.226162.3%38 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers51c163.51$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.223,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf292…1cc7backed Georgia Southern Eagles36c158.5$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Georgia Southern Eagles43c153.87$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.0216135.4%57 W · 104 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers69c145.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10039144.5%174 W · 217 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers35c138$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.934,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Georgia Southern Eagles56c130.18$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.681,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca51…ca40backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers69c126.02$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.071040%4 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-35.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf37c…3c74backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers43c120.93$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5221830.7%67 W · 151 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers26c116.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.819050.5%96 W · 94 L+15.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers45c116$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.949747.5%236 W · 261 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Georgia Southern Eagles56c116$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4661446.1%283 W · 331 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed Georgia Southern Eagles49c110$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.64858.3%28 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers55c109.12$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023544.7%105 W · 130 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1758…5d73backed Georgia Southern Eagles48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.172334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f19…325ebacked Georgia Southern Eagles39c101.35$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.351540%6 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Georgia Southern Eagles74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2625438.2%97 W · 157 L-14.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ad2…71f8backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-45.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers29c98.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.163,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1878…6f4abacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers43c92.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.72966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a23…97a7backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers52c90.79$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2121535.3%76 W · 139 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54e1…9de8backed Georgia Southern Eagles57c87.82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.761346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b96…f098backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers42c79.96$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.184621.7%10 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cd2…f9a6backed Georgia Southern Eagles69c73.38$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.75742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick61cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa022…22f1backed Georgia Southern Eagles69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.46944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers57c70.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409554.7%52 W · 43 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b1…592bbacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers48c58.13$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers30c50.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.155133.3%17 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5514…72bdbacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.51450%7 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf0e…c6a8backed Georgia Southern Eagles66c49.7$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd6d…c504backed Georgia Southern Eagles41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.78862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010126.7%27 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers39c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.459254.3%50 W · 42 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc383…c054backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019057.4%109 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fac…85bbbacked Georgia Southern Eagles46c32.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Georgia Southern Eagles39c32.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.571,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5705…08e9backed Georgia Southern Eagles65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.77366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Georgia Southern Eagles48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.381453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2942…5c1bbacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers54c29.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e8…0b04backed Georgia Southern Eagles59c26.81$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.091957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7688…5817backed Georgia Southern Eagles76c26.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5936…6e0dbacked Georgia Southern Eagles79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.32683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick77cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf395…ac0abacked Georgia Southern Eagles80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535650.8%181 W · 175 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf702…7cc8backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers57c24.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1417544%77 W · 98 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b56…d1e1backed Georgia Southern Eagles79c24.1$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick70cpaid-40.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b9e…0db0backed Georgia Southern Eagles50c22.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.283969.2%27 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x308f…e152backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers64c21.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.541546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd25…03b9backed Georgia Southern Eagles71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick67cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.