TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wildcardof FOKUS, Wildcard
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$866,070
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,089,299

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $866,070 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 510 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x63a5…8e33backed Wildcard27c159,769$43,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116,741.363438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Wildcard25c100,655$25,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,484.7542440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked FOKUS74c71,173$52,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,656.5539249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25e2…9a09backed FOKUS75c66,980$50,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,2352060%12 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed FOKUS72c34,723$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,000.3622142.5%94 W · 127 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x644d…6cf8backed FOKUS75c25,113$18,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,766.871060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FOKUS0c18,801$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.82,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Wildcard26c16,090$4,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,977.8825842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed FOKUS36c15,587$5,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,588.7130340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Wildcard25c15,045$3,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,284.1742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed FOKUS71c14,309$10,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,159.5122049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7193…ae51backed FOKUS73c10,197$7,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,421.7529858.4%174 W · 124 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked FOKUS74c10,000$7,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,40022354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Wildcard26c8,240$2,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,064.745,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Wildcard29c8,000$2,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,711.9728538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Wildcard17c7,405$1,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,166.31,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Wildcard30c7,000$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,929.951,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Wildcard32c6,205$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,204.3315245.4%69 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f53…c2b7backed FOKUS75c5,571$4,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,178.5530%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed FOKUS75c5,177$3,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,883.0512552.8%66 W · 59 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked FOKUS68c5,109$3,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,488.664452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Wildcard25c4,041$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,030.871645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9faf…8d2cbacked FOKUS75c3,940$2,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,95510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Wildcard30c3,908$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,735.3984454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed FOKUS74c3,401$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,526.0124346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed FOKUS73c3,397$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,479.5333452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Wildcard19c3,387$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,747.931,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf301…4ce1backed Wildcard10c3,376$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,044.915543.6%24 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Wildcard26c3,292$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.91,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9674…1302backed FOKUS75c3,283$2,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,462.58548.2%41 W · 44 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeba1…838bbacked FOKUS75c3,145$2,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,347.410350.5%52 W · 51 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Wildcard22c3,084$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,403.272,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked FOKUS76c3,073$2,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,335.5853545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked FOKUS7c3,037$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.153,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Wildcard26c3,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,22046149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Wildcard33c2,959$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,974.856,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Wildcard17c2,848$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,375.7987047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked FOKUS72c2,772$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,005.911,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked FOKUS66c2,549$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688.532552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Wildcard27c2,500$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,82535236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked FOKUS71c2,457$1,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.2114954.4%81 W · 68 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ce…100fbacked FOKUS77c2,431$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,869.599753.6%52 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Wildcard27c2,274$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.1113545.9%62 W · 73 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Wildcard24c2,226$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,683.518149.4%40 W · 41 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed FOKUS70c2,220$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55436742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb28…02bbbacked FOKUS72c2,205$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,587.78158%47 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Wildcard36c2,132$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.312,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed FOKUS73c2,031$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.426549.1%130 W · 135 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed FOKUS73c2,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45097040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Wildcard24c2,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.994247.6%20 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005b…2947backed FOKUS74c2,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b6c…9a83backed FOKUS75c1,990$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.18540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Wildcard29c1,978$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,404.178639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Wildcard57c1,974$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.151,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b3…47b9backed FOKUS74c1,969$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.914757.4%27 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Wildcard7c1,954$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.637,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed FOKUS73c1,940$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.2553746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Wildcard39c1,833$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.84,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked FOKUS73c1,828$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,335.689159.3%54 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed FOKUS56c1,730$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.769850%49 W · 49 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked FOKUS75c1,541$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.414953.1%26 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Wildcard8c1,521$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.360248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…2812backed FOKUS56c1,512$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.4825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-55.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FOKUS38c1,460$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.233,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcddb…0d22backed FOKUS72c1,437$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.823756.8%21 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Wildcard39c1,421$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.563,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab4e…c4a0backed FOKUS70c1,409$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.812832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21c8…f804backed FOKUS74c1,319$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.03560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x79e5…2bd7backed FOKUS75c1,301$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed FOKUS73c1,286$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.3912154.5%66 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4619…2108backed FOKUS72c1,265$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.826355.6%35 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked FOKUS79c1,252$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.5464852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FOKUS65c1,250$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.51,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca9…f74dbacked FOKUS71c1,247$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.291855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed FOKUS73c1,225$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.516031.7%19 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Wildcard28c1,200$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.985,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Wildcard27c1,170$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.937625%19 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa79a…94d9backed FOKUS64c1,144$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.871435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-38.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Wildcard35c1,112$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.264,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed FOKUS3c1,076$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.33666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x151e…c6dbbacked FOKUS76c1,037$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.51616.7%1 W · 5 L-3.1wins-0.52per pick68cpaid-77.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Wildcard31c1,016$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.531,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebfd…dd70backed Wildcard26c1,000$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7401435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Wildcard32c1,000$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67714847.3%70 W · 78 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked FOKUS65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65081244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked FOKUS73c1,000$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7302839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b8…61dcbacked Wildcard26c1,000$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7403452.9%18 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed FOKUS71c1,000$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71093261.7%575 W · 357 L-4.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Wildcard29c999.99$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.9946749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Wildcard33c999.97$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.9824139%94 W · 147 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b53…7657backed FOKUS75c999.78$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.831573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fa3…172fbacked FOKUS70c986.96$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.872445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed FOKUS75c985$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.75520%1 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.52per pick72cpaid-75%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed FOKUS74c980.66$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.0468753.9%370 W · 317 L-21.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Wildcard27c956.2$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.0313030.8%40 W · 90 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e3…242cbacked FOKUS5c943.49$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.031717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-71.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed FOKUS68c933.56$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.8137445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4437…a474backed FOKUS75c900.74$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.55837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-46.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Wildcard25c873.28$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.968639.5%34 W · 52 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed FOKUS75c871.3$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.481850%9 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.