TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Tunis: Tristan Boyer vs Aziz Dougaz

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tristan Boyerof Tristan Boyer, Aziz Dougaz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,209
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,300

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,209 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Aziz Dougaz45c7,762$3,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,469.557,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46ee…ae61backed Tristan Boyer69c4,528$3,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.293351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Tristan Boyer58c3,454$2,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.18,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Aziz Dougaz24c3,429$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.537741.4%156 W · 221 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Aziz Dougaz11c1,829$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.398,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Tristan Boyer40c1,780$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06854345.3%246 W · 297 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aziz Dougaz39c1,768$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.82,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Tristan Boyer64c1,565$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.276,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Aziz Dougaz44c1,296$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.454,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Aziz Dougaz39c1,142$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.746,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Tristan Boyer78c1,103$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.092,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Aziz Dougaz47c975.34$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.413,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Aziz Dougaz43c875.04$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.74,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Tristan Boyer53c838.52$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.234,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Aziz Dougaz41c691.67$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.281,14853%608 W · 540 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Aziz Dougaz45c677.07$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.0650340%201 W · 302 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed Tristan Boyer74c676.42$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.4250458.9%297 W · 207 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Aziz Dougaz38c653.59$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.352,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d04…022bbacked Tristan Boyer53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28214531.7%46 W · 99 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff87…f5f7backed Aziz Dougaz47c600$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2829458.5%55 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Aziz Dougaz29c594.01$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.374,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Tristan Boyer53c566.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.041,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Aziz Dougaz44c560.08$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.534,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Tristan Boyer66c539.99$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.21,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Aziz Dougaz31c522.13$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.751,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Tristan Boyer53c500$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.682,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Aziz Dougaz45c445.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20068026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Tristan Boyer59c405.97$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.435,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Tristan Boyer57c383.18$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.2627836.3%101 W · 177 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7932…5b38backed Tristan Boyer53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3636157.1%206 W · 155 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Tristan Boyer56c361.68$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.0811956.3%67 W · 52 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Tristan Boyer68c356.94$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.8299244.7%443 W · 549 L-29.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Aziz Dougaz32c356.47$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.338,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x890a…7623backed Tristan Boyer73c351.94$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.2624975.5%188 W · 61 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0f6…a5eebacked Tristan Boyer57c347$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.2159954.9%329 W · 270 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Aziz Dougaz47c326.25$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.151,86544.7%834 W · 1,031 L+36.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Tristan Boyer58c272.75$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.8851339.4%202 W · 311 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4538…7d5cbacked Tristan Boyer63c268.76$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.4417738.4%68 W · 109 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Tristan Boyer63c209.08$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.411,42155%782 W · 639 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5192…df62backed Aziz Dougaz42c207.3$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0412352.8%65 W · 58 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Tristan Boyer58c199.99$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.0343067%288 W · 142 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Tristan Boyer62c199.76$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.641,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Aziz Dougaz38c166.51$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.530339.9%121 W · 182 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Tristan Boyer63c159.9$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.51,17451.9%609 W · 565 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Tristan Boyer64c157.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.141,22652%637 W · 589 L+44.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Tristan Boyer62c140.28$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.049,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Aziz Dougaz34c139.9$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.21,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Tristan Boyer40c122.5$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.559440.2%239 W · 355 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf23…dcb7backed Aziz Dougaz33c120.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.946426.6%17 W · 47 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc33e…b4b6backed Aziz Dougaz38c118.42$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4518545.4%84 W · 101 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Tristan Boyer55c102.28$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.911,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Aziz Dougaz39c101.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0219241.1%79 W · 113 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b48…ab2bbacked Tristan Boyer50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Aziz Dougaz31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3123865.5%156 W · 82 L+31.3wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+20%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6a20…d606backed Tristan Boyer74c96$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9692674.6%691 W · 235 L+1.7wins0.00per pick74cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Aziz Dougaz25c94.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.082,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Tristan Boyer67c90.57$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.682,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7173…7a4cbacked Aziz Dougaz41c89.81$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.117240.3%29 W · 43 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaca0…9966backed Aziz Dougaz43c80.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.522030%6 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-41.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Tristan Boyer62c75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51,00145.4%454 W · 547 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed Aziz Dougaz34c74.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9874346.3%344 W · 399 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb0f…6906backed Aziz Dougaz34c73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.843033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9888…e6febacked Aziz Dougaz43c67.33$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.822,44745.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Tristan Boyer55c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Aziz Dougaz38c59.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,41745.2%640 W · 777 L+41.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Aziz Dougaz33c53.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4122550.2%113 W · 112 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Aziz Dougaz38c53.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe71…8437backed Aziz Dougaz39c51.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2611239.3%44 W · 68 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e27…9967backed Tristan Boyer64c48.83$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.656869.1%47 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c9…a4fcbacked Aziz Dougaz45c47.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.516536.9%24 W · 41 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Aziz Dougaz40c46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.43,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Aziz Dougaz38c45.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2317338.7%67 W · 106 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+77.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Aziz Dougaz37c45.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.693,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x9ef6…9331backed Tristan Boyer66c45.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.471060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tristan Boyer39c45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.457,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ad…dffebacked Tristan Boyer64c45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.293865.8%25 W · 13 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Tristan Boyer67c42.96$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.166,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x982e…add6backed Tristan Boyer48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6715938.4%61 W · 98 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee0a…36d8backed Tristan Boyer72c41.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6738262.3%238 W · 144 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ded…68a3backed Aziz Dougaz37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1588560.2%533 W · 352 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef51…263fbacked Aziz Dougaz53c39.23$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.793116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-40.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc04c…cebfbacked Tristan Boyer64c37.31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4367178.7%528 W · 143 L+49.1wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+10.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Tristan Boyer54c36.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.082,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1818…2c75backed Aziz Dougaz47c34.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-43.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Aziz Dougaz47c31.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.891,06557.4%611 W · 454 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Aziz Dougaz44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.274955.1%413 W · 336 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Tristan Boyer62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.42,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0154…30f7backed Tristan Boyer53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.352457.4%301 W · 223 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Tristan Boyer63c27.14$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.042,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc4…77cabacked Tristan Boyer62c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.455658.9%33 W · 23 L-0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b9…63d0backed Aziz Dougaz42c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51010%1 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-79.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Tristan Boyer62c24.95$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3631563.5%200 W · 115 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf472…fd6ebacked Tristan Boyer63c23.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8110742.1%45 W · 62 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfd…aadebacked Tristan Boyer58c22.34$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3813557.8%78 W · 57 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed Tristan Boyer69c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5431366.8%209 W · 104 L+27.1wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x95e4…5134backed Tristan Boyer56c20.61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.039140.7%37 W · 54 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa555…7594backed Tristan Boyer64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.19850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Tristan Boyer57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.635187.7%308 W · 43 L+66.4wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+29.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.