NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd91168c1a1acfff54ed9d619e00ecad08eaf94751a33bddd646c43adc1613e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Bulls, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Bulls | 52c | 16,171$8,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,762.2 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mavericks | 48c | 15,526$7,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,468.67 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb889…a430backed Bulls | 51c | 13,090$6,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,414.28 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +9.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Mavericks | 49c | 12,900$6,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,321 | 483 | 52%251 W · 232 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…a744backed Mavericks | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x00f4…df59backed Bulls | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 59c | 8,779$5,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,574.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Mavericks | 54c | 6,481$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Bulls | 46c | 5,872$2,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,171.14 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Mavericks | 47c | 5,772$2,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,712.69 | 237 | 47.7%113 W · 124 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Bulls | 47c | 4,638$2,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,458.3 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Mavericks | 53c | 3,400$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,801.95 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Mavericks | 28c | 3,190$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.28 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bulls | 51c | 2,314$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.77 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Mavericks | 53c | 1,603$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.57 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks | 48c | 1,121$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.42 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 45c | 1,069$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Bulls | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Mavericks | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Mavericks | 55c | 600$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…d13abacked Bulls | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Mavericks | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Bulls | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…23d8backed Mavericks | 53c | 393.79$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.71 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Mavericks | 51c | 349.97$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.48 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Bulls | 77c | 324.59$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mavericks | 23c | 319.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 47c | 312.68$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.32 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f64…098ebacked Mavericks | 54c | 309.26$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Bulls | 53c | 301.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.89 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Mavericks | 54c | 249.32$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.82 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…0899backed Mavericks | 55c | 182.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…4cddbacked Mavericks | 33c | 182.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Bulls | 47c | 177$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Bulls | 68c | 172.02$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c1…18c7backed Mavericks | 48c | 158$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Mavericks | 26c | 151.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bulls | 49c | 131.42$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 49c | 116.87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Mavericks | 54c | 113.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…256ebacked Mavericks | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…dedebacked Mavericks | 52c | 109.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Bulls | 49c | 108.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Mavericks | 47c | 104.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Mavericks | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…a291backed Bulls | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Mavericks | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +12.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Mavericks | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Bulls | 47c | 95.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Mavericks | 53c | 95.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…b85fbacked Mavericks | 50c | 64.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…cb14backed Mavericks | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Bulls | 47c | 61.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Mavericks | 27c | 58.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Mavericks | 31c | 50.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Mavericks | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…af02backed Mavericks | 53c | 41.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Bulls | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Bulls | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Mavericks | 54c | 29.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Bulls | 47c | 24.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Bulls | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Mavericks | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…57d5backed Bulls | 46c | 23.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Bulls | 61c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)this page
- Mavericks vs. BullsBulls won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.