NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3542028c76e61ad62b7c2ca85fbf539914cadb6bdd6a227b8559305cba969791
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 54c | 88,077$47,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,479.15 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Under | 46c | 86,988$40,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,973.75 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Over | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 54c | 8,346$4,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,499.43 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 7,244$3,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,868.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 54c | 6,344$3,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,426 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Over | 2c | 6,250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Over | 52c | 4,780$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,479.92 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 3,220$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,706.69 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1428…017cbacked Under | 47c | 2,125$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.23 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…34d4backed Under | 48c | 1,637$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.5 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 48c | 1,543$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.36 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 52c | 807.69$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 46c | 493.66$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.16 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Under | 48c | 378.52$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.62 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 348$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 48c | 329.09$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.13 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 47c | 320$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.6 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…db14backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 256$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.68 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 209.94$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.17 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 47c | 160$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.8 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 47c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 47c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 47c | 66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 50c | 59.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…84b0backed Under | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 193 | 46.6%90 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0548…9e1cbacked Under | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked Under | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Under | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 39c | 37.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Under | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa88e…11bebacked Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 51c | 23.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e88ebacked Under | 47c | 23.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5this page
- Mavericks vs. BullsBulls won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.