NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04e0d4ed0e358bc4edb3579958912cb5618e3f772720c1e272f7e4f229fb27e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Bulls, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Bulls | 51c | 66,364$33,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,664.79 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Mavericks | 50c | 43,648$21,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,821 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Bulls | 51c | 33,662$17,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,416.51 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ee…ca3cbacked Mavericks | 53c | 22,531$11,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,900 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mavericks | 46c | 21,150$9,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,731.73 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Bulls | 54c | 11,011$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,010.92 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Bulls | 51c | 10,286$5,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,040.07 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Mavericks | 49c | 9,429$4,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,620 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 51c | 8,052$4,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,907.99 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Mavericks | 49c | 8,043$3,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,941 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Bulls | 51c | 7,797$3,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,820.68 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Mavericks | 48c | 7,258$3,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,514.16 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Mavericks | 50c | 6,405$3,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,202.39 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Mavericks | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Mavericks | 51c | 4,121$2,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,101.87 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bulls | 51c | 2,230$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.4 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Mavericks | 50c | 2,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Mavericks | 47c | 1,730$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.1 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Bulls | 50c | 1,520$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bulls | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Bulls | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Mavericks | 51c | 1,177$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.27 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 49c | 1,110$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.97 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Bulls | 45c | 1,014$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.46 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bulls | 46c | 1,004$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.15 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ca…2a84backed Mavericks | 51c | 978.8$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bulls | 49c | 707.84$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 47c | 577.19$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.91 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Mavericks | 50c | 565$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.5 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Bulls | 52c | 538.56$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.51 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…bd7dbacked Bulls | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Bulls | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked Bulls | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Bulls | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Mavericks | 49c | 310.45$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.12 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Mavericks | 49c | 307$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.43 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Bulls | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a4…d70cbacked Bulls | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Bulls | 50c | 201.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Bulls | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Bulls | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Bulls | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 182 | 56.6%103 W · 79 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…b85fbacked Mavericks | 47c | 159.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Mavericks | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Bulls | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Mavericks | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d2…22fbbacked Bulls | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Bulls | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Bulls | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Mavericks | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…4cddbacked Mavericks | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Bulls | 50c | 92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f4…83a0backed Mavericks | 51c | 86.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Mavericks | 49c | 69.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Mavericks | 51c | 68.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Mavericks | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb889…a430backed Bulls | 54c | 65.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +9.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…c594backed Bulls | 50c | 63.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Bulls | 53c | 59.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91c…024abacked Bulls | 53c | 54.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Mavericks | 46c | 50.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Bulls | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bef…b7c2backed Bulls | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Mavericks | 47c | 49.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Bulls | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e4…e026backed Bulls | 50c | 40.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Bulls | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x909b…6a0dbacked Bulls | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…22b8backed Bulls | 50c | 39.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…d245backed Bulls | 52c | 38.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Mavericks | 51c | 37.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…4884backed Mavericks | 48c | 36.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…730ebacked Bulls | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Bulls | 49c | 30.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Bulls | 50c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532c…5e00backed Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89a4…5f78backed Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29b…6012backed Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)this page
- Mavericks vs. BullsBulls won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.