TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Billy Harris

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Toby Samuelof Toby Samuel, Billy Harris
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$159,201
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$182,771

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,201 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Billy Harris16c17,374$2,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,768.89,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Toby Samuel59c15,000$8,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,20018148.1%87 W · 94 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Billy Harris23c12,066$2,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,808.974,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae5c…5df7backed Toby Samuel43c8,000$3,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,539.997549.3%37 W · 38 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Billy Harris51c7,373$3,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,759.426,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Billy Harris8c5,996$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.284,34152.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L+63.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf0…b554backed Billy Harris53c4,400$2,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3324047.5%19 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Toby Samuel77c3,387$2,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.071,68350.6%851 W · 832 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Billy Harris42c2,736$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.611,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Billy Harris24c2,123$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.241,51224.1%364 W · 1,148 L-41.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Billy Harris41c2,024$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.8974654.8%409 W · 337 L+46.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae51…1d03backed Billy Harris44c1,960$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.1516254.9%89 W · 73 L+14.1wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe98c…8792backed Toby Samuel52c1,745$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.7331540.6%128 W · 187 L-12.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Billy Harris31c1,358$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.868,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0079…31c7backed Toby Samuel51c1,244$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.681631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5703…1048backed Billy Harris8c1,243$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011729.1%34 W · 83 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Toby Samuel76c1,100$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.1741748.2%201 W · 216 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Toby Samuel50c1,040$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.062,88739.5%1,141 W · 1,746 L-84.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Toby Samuel69c999.99$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31049250.6%249 W · 243 L-25.7wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8ab…13a1backed Billy Harris45c999.97$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.9927952.3%146 W · 133 L-19.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-15.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Billy Harris27c874.14$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.023,31948.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L-52.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Billy Harris41c790.28$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.783,15557.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L+176.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x25bf…ef3dbacked Toby Samuel64c776.8$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.4143652.1%227 W · 209 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Billy Harris50c677.83$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.5892953.5%497 W · 432 L-4.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Billy Harris21c600$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12669244.4%307 W · 385 L+29.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Billy Harris25c582.85$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.053,72642.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L-48.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Toby Samuel66c559.05$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.0840046.8%187 W · 213 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dca…da77backed Toby Samuel56c540.34$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.0817156.7%97 W · 74 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35c4…7242backed Billy Harris31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1559023.3%21 W · 69 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…a8e0backed Billy Harris24c493.9$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.525957.5%149 W · 110 L+16.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed Billy Harris10c486.06$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4669429.8%207 W · 487 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55e2…edc8backed Toby Samuel80c416.25$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.253100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Billy Harris13c373.95$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1456926%148 W · 421 L-23.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c54…bebbbacked Billy Harris49c342.14$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.6521246.2%98 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Billy Harris20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6036535.1%128 W · 237 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68e1…b2fabacked Billy Harris56c296$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7653255.5%295 W · 237 L+24.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd13e…ed01backed Billy Harris56c289$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.8434854.3%189 W · 159 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8888…3d5cbacked Billy Harris56c285.42$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0431452.9%166 W · 148 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd072…95e8backed Billy Harris56c284$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0426350.6%133 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f4…6794backed Billy Harris56c283$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4837853.7%203 W · 175 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c3…f740backed Billy Harris26c277.52$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4320624.8%51 W · 155 L-20.0wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-53.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed Toby Samuel49c255$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.0545549.7%226 W · 229 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Toby Samuel76c254$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604,60267.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L+309.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x240a…814cbacked Toby Samuel79c252.65$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.067162%44 W · 27 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Billy Harris21c225.57$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3732246.9%151 W · 171 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Toby Samuel47c210.28$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.451,00857.7%582 W · 426 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Billy Harris21c203$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4636434.3%125 W · 239 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a9…68b6backed Billy Harris26c199.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8816653.6%89 W · 77 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Billy Harris9c192.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.127832.4%90 W · 188 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Toby Samuel63c181.44$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.892,83947.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb2…126abacked Toby Samuel50c179.84$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9225139.4%99 W · 152 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf19…8869backed Toby Samuel51c176.47$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4713036.9%48 W · 82 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Billy Harris12c175.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3675912.1%92 W · 667 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f20…5d31backed Billy Harris57c175.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9812452.4%65 W · 59 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Billy Harris50c160.32$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.831,74548.1%840 W · 905 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Toby Samuel52c152.76$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.056,57446.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L-45.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fab…3cabbacked Billy Harris34c139.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9226330.8%81 W · 182 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c22…0a8cbacked Toby Samuel48c135.42$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4246640.6%189 W · 277 L-36.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3cb…3bbebacked Billy Harris49c122.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6015356.2%86 W · 67 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6851…ec54backed Toby Samuel47c121.5$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4511348.7%55 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2326…b627backed Billy Harris46c118.87$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.41,28965.2%841 W · 448 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick64cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18d8…da3bbacked Billy Harris32c118.14$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.538148.3%184 W · 197 L+28.3wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+13.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Billy Harris21c111.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.491,70248.3%822 W · 880 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfea6…b795backed Billy Harris41c107.23$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3457841%237 W · 341 L-22.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26d3…8a20backed Billy Harris50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010565.7%69 W · 36 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c2…2d18backed Billy Harris29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295750.9%29 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x293c…dcbabacked Toby Samuel55c99.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9937354.2%202 W · 171 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68cf…e58cbacked Toby Samuel55c99.98$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.997458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Toby Samuel56c99.97$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.997252.8%38 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+21.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bd3…1c3cbacked Billy Harris21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205424.1%13 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa678…dd59backed Billy Harris21c95.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015744.6%70 W · 87 L-11.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7328…3a00backed Toby Samuel54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.597428.4%21 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e25…db26backed Toby Samuel79c91.14$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1483661%510 W · 326 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6796…453fbacked Toby Samuel52c90$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.295047.7%453 W · 497 L+34.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa466…1c77backed Billy Harris45c88.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.652634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Toby Samuel58c85.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.855,00941.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L-82.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Billy Harris25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203,98745.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Billy Harris25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2072047.9%345 W · 375 L-2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8784…9b1abacked Toby Samuel42c78.97$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.87534.7%26 W · 49 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-31.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Toby Samuel49c75.91$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7178248.3%378 W · 404 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d6…2dfdbacked Billy Harris31c74.68$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.155232.7%17 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Toby Samuel70c66$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.898055.4%543 W · 437 L+3.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0868…efe8backed Billy Harris23c64.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.78236.6%30 W · 52 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2468…cad2backed Toby Samuel79c62.01$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.028751.7%45 W · 42 L-14.3wins-0.16per pick68cpaid-24.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Billy Harris20c61.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.395,32528.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L-21.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cf2…ac54backed Toby Samuel79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.620047.5%95 W · 105 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Toby Samuel79c57.83$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.141,75449.1%862 W · 892 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd845…d19fbacked Billy Harris25c56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-66.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Billy Harris45c55.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9649251.6%254 W · 238 L-1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Toby Samuel59c50.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.851,90444.1%839 W · 1,065 L-16.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Toby Samuel44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.452,33946.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L+55.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd928…705fbacked Toby Samuel78c44.59$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7829752.9%157 W · 140 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Billy Harris45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2049943.1%215 W · 284 L-16.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad90…1012backed Billy Harris49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205054%27 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5803…3f3fbacked Toby Samuel49c40.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8199148.6%482 W · 509 L+43.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x986b…bdc6backed Billy Harris29c40.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7313229.5%39 W · 93 L-32.9wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-59.1%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xd01b…e05fbacked Toby Samuel69c33.36$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.461080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Billy Harris45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1545139%176 W · 275 L+1.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83a2…a3a9backed Toby Samuel64c31.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.615048%24 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d40…ba95backed Toby Samuel53c31.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.86538.5%25 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.