Movies · resolved market
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde4e3ba516450a121cbdc5a373ab0c52f596cebea5dfc511f08e54570ff7facc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,528$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.11 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 32c | 655.01$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.72 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d5c6backed Yes | 3c | 542.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 40c | 516.36$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.58 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…57aabacked Yes | 20c | 505$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 29c | 419.98$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.61 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 305.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 41c | 265.23$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.44 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 245$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.71 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 213.78$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.72 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 60c | 166.91$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 148.9$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 44c | 126$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 77c | 122$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 115$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 11c | 103.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes | 52c | 101$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 80c | 77.69$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed No | 63c | 64.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 58c | 56.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…1a28backed No | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 30.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…4ca5backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 24.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 61c | 22.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…40bdbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x616e…6b3bbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9891…d78dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed No | 55c | 18.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 62c | 16.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?this page
- Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?No won
- Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?Yes won
- Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be greater than 11m?No won
- Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.