TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,437
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,698

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,437 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes67c1,583$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.164,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes65c1,092$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.621,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes57c803$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.91,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed No31c624.99$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19231454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No12c590.12$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5654234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No57c478.52$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.92,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes33c416$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.031,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff82…bd3cbacked Yes61c410.26$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.241866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No42c400.92$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.224,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No47c324.86$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.0610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes39c323.26$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.458,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No42c319.99$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No39c302.28$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.231,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes75c283.61$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.062,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No15c240$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.481,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No63c219$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.973,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed No7c194.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.857313.7%10 W · 63 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked No37c183.05$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7341331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No38c177.82$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7491444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No40c172$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.649,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes61c160$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.41,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…3925backed No29c154.07$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.944427.3%12 W · 32 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes64c152.49$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.385,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No59c150.66$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.213,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No59c143.55$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3787629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No53c133.54$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.124,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No40c119.07$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.837,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes49c117.59$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9758152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes53c107$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.992,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes62c105.96$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.778,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No25c104.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.494,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39f8…badabacked Yes62c103$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.64450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2535232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3822746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7024434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e0f…9a05backed No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420631.1%64 W · 142 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89cc…9e01backed No51c90.81$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.869752.6%51 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No22c90.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.341,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes59c88.17$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5218449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No36c80.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.922,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No31c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.614,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No38c78.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No27c78.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes60c77.63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.054,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes71c71.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.762,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes38c69.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.393,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No50c69$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3113845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed Yes60c67.55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0214745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes78c65.74$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4656543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed No23c64.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.895648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No29c62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.975,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.21,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No40c59.9$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.111,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No52c59.27$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8254547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes57c55$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.61,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No42c54.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7993837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No37c52.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4728360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50d3…bad4backed No30c52.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.891741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed No49c50.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7813852.9%73 W · 65 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf707…e8cebacked Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc436…76c9backed No21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x166c…bf05backed No36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+36.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1177851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No38c49.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6335344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8782…0968backed Yes80c48.44$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.931546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes77c48.32$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.96,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes47c46$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.31,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes78c45.81$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0890555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes60c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1833746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2035137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1616148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1467158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed No40c37.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.779846.9%46 W · 52 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No39c36.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4253855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d3e…2c6bbacked No31c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8518814.4%27 W · 161 L-14.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-14.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No72c34.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2526458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No60c34.08$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.53,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e0…6392backed Yes62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.265358.5%31 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No51c31.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3343848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1212233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No41c29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.991,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes60c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.162,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes61c27.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8723538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No66c27.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.161,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No38c26.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0794066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes51c26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.744,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.254,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912544.8%56 W · 69 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes77c22.53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1814161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes46c22.43$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.111,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes62c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3620842.8%89 W · 119 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x997a…4cbebacked No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.419565.6%128 W · 67 L-0.8wins0.00per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fa6…3c12backed No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.42138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa012…2af7backed No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26061.7%37 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.