Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf7106bf2361ba8164f1c6affb46d92dc33988d79a17f19938b4c331c8ba95e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 59c | 1,809$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.41 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 22c | 1,125$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.27 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 76c | 1,036$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.26 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 76c | 594$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.69 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 552.55$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 10c | 499.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 8c | 441.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 337.31$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 336.69$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…80adbacked No | 72c | 314.4$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 71c | 297.28$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 77c | 297$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 41c | 295$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 10c | 275.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 234.44$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 41c | 225$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 41c | 212.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 208.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 26c | 190$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 186$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 23c | 178.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 23c | 170.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 77c | 134.8$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 129$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 66c | 125.72$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 13c | 124.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 24c | 117$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 17c | 114.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 11c | 113.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 107.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 101.68$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 42c | 99.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 93.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 65c | 89.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 82.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 16c | 78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 76.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 56c | 73.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 17c | 67.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 31c | 59.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 57.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 65c | 52.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 29c | 50.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 64c | 45.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 60c | 41.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 60c | 38.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 71c | 36.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 28.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…2861backed Yes | 43c | 26.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 66c | 24.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3c12backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa068…d3b4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 76c | 13.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.