TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Orioles vs. Padres

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oriolesof Orioles, Padres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$446,755
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$447,611

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $446,755 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7435…a620backed Padres62c120,184$74,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,47228646.5%133 W · 153 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Orioles39c116,570$45,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,107.6338043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Orioles40c51,118$20,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,67160249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Padres60c24,000$14,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,40026949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Orioles38c17,084$6,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,591.8143949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Padres60c16,443$9,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,865.830255.6%168 W · 134 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Orioles47c11,401$5,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,024.0478445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Padres61c10,825$6,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,603.2563152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Orioles60c10,027$5,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,029.533554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Padres62c9,385$5,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,818.9935854.5%195 W · 163 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Padres51c8,810$4,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,497.451,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Padres61c7,278$4,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,423.0425453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Padres60c7,007$4,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,231.491,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed Orioles41c6,573$2,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,878.275050%25 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Padres33c6,384$2,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,125.989,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Padres28c5,874$1,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,652.2921747%102 W · 115 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe973…7338backed Orioles41c5,030$2,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,967.691566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+47.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xea34…0a92backed Orioles40c4,809$1,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,885.42360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Orioles52c4,802$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,301.625551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Padres32c4,083$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.1217243%74 W · 98 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Orioles39c4,013$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,438.2956451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Padres61c3,892$2,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,373.5235952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x532f…83ccbacked Padres59c3,603$2,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,125.777548%36 W · 39 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles38c3,591$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,228.642,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Orioles41c3,333$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,966.451,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Padres59c3,224$1,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90219649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa983…46a3backed Padres56c3,045$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70011345.1%51 W · 62 L-16.4wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-28.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles47c2,827$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.462,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Orioles41c2,331$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.8833845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Orioles38c2,100$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3021,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Padres19c2,068$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.71,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Padres49c2,013$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.5315749.7%78 W · 79 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Orioles37c2,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,26038751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Orioles39c1,900$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15995850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Padres60c1,893$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.971,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Padres38c1,798$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Padres37c1,796$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.616536.9%24 W · 41 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-17.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Padres56c1,786$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00034550.7%175 W · 170 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Orioles40c1,601$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.5850843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Orioles56c1,528$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.786,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xecba…5fb4backed Padres64c1,250$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8004748.9%23 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Orioles41c1,195$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.111,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cdb…886fbacked Padres59c1,169$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f8…3a79backed Padres53c1,046$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.361735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Orioles40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60083248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Orioles49c942$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.336,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6148…acadbacked Orioles40c931$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.624547.3%116 W · 129 L+21.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Padres55c871.73$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.4143946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Orioles42c840.33$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.3970946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Padres60c750$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45020748.8%101 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Padres61c700$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42732042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe1e7…90c6backed Orioles41c683$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.973100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+106%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Orioles40c633$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.844443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Orioles39c600$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3649842.9%42 W · 56 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Orioles39c576.9$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.9151347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Padres61c573.77$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35037857.4%217 W · 161 L+1.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b79…722bbacked Padres43c561.86$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Orioles57c559.04$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.396443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3acc…bae4backed Padres55c544.62$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Orioles38c544.09$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.8930151.5%155 W · 146 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Padres58c515.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30080955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Padres59c508$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.721,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1a…bf3abacked Padres63c500.99$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.625666.1%37 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e86…93c2backed Orioles39c500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3052948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92ed…82c6backed Padres60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010441.3%43 W · 61 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Orioles39c499.99$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.9932651.5%168 W · 158 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e92…a962backed Orioles43c490.6$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+135%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Orioles41c487.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.856351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f66…0ba4backed Orioles41c487$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.33475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+56.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9375…1dbdbacked Padres59c477.37$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.6511257.1%64 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Padres60c474$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.6951953.2%276 W · 243 L-24.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb8c…0a55backed Padres59c433$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.472755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Orioles36c426.08$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2736845.6%31 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Orioles41c400$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2363,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Padres61c394.38$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.578454.8%46 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Orioles41c350$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.51,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Padres59c350$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.518649.5%92 W · 94 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcec6…47c1backed Padres59c340.68$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016440.6%26 W · 38 L-10.5wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-30.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Padres60c335.1$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20088549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x409b…d3dabacked Padres60c333.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Padres14c302.55$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2719…28ddbacked Orioles64c301.48$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.6825364.4%163 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Orioles50c292.35$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.376456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b79…14edbacked Padres54c292.16$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbde…a050backed Orioles37c273.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.776747.8%32 W · 35 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa270…42c9backed Orioles40c268.34$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.0140152.4%210 W · 191 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffc3…8fffbacked Orioles45c261.13$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.272343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf267…0a4cbacked Orioles37c250$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.513052.3%68 W · 62 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4201…f6edbacked Padres60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd5c…1d65backed Orioles73c245.51$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.592166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x03d2…7fb7backed Padres64c239.06$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Orioles42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.153448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Padres31c231.02$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.734,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x430b…6e64backed Padres47c210.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Orioles41c207.32$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.3299951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b2…85efbacked Orioles39c200.01$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.01785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick46cpaid+80.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Orioles40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1203455.9%19 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Padres58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1161,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Padres36c199.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.247745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Orioles51c196.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.061,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.