MLB · resolved market
Orioles vs. Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde8da70bde01aa8f13f13fdba958452ba92282d859b5b5dcf9af7d47c605e9ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oriolesof Orioles, Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $446,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $447,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $446,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7435…a620backed Padres | 62c | 120,184$74,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74,472 | 286 | 46.5%133 W · 153 L | -15.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf29b…dd4cbacked Orioles | 39c | 116,570$45,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71,107.63 | 380 | 43.4%165 W · 215 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Orioles | 40c | 51,118$20,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,671 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Padres | 60c | 24,000$14,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,400 | 269 | 49.4%133 W · 136 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Orioles | 38c | 17,084$6,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,591.81 | 439 | 49.4%217 W · 222 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Padres | 60c | 16,443$9,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,865.8 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Orioles | 47c | 11,401$5,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,024.04 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Padres | 61c | 10,825$6,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,603.25 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Orioles | 60c | 10,027$5,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,029.5 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Padres | 62c | 9,385$5,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,818.99 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Padres | 51c | 8,810$4,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,497.45 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Padres | 61c | 7,278$4,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,423.04 | 254 | 53.5%136 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Padres | 60c | 7,007$4,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,231.49 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Orioles | 41c | 6,573$2,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,878.27 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Padres | 33c | 6,384$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125.98 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Padres | 28c | 5,874$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.29 | 217 | 47%102 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe973…7338backed Orioles | 41c | 5,030$2,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,967.69 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…0a92backed Orioles | 40c | 4,809$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,885.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Orioles | 52c | 4,802$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,301.6 | 255 | 51%130 W · 125 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Padres | 32c | 4,083$1,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.12 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Orioles | 39c | 4,013$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,438.29 | 564 | 51.1%288 W · 276 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9d…02c7backed Padres | 61c | 3,892$2,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,373.52 | 359 | 52.4%188 W · 171 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532f…83ccbacked Padres | 59c | 3,603$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125.77 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles | 38c | 3,591$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,228.64 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Orioles | 41c | 3,333$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,966.45 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…d974backed Padres | 59c | 3,224$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,902 | 196 | 49.5%97 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa983…46a3backed Padres | 56c | 3,045$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 113 | 45.1%51 W · 62 L | -16.4wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles | 47c | 2,827$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,497.46 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…fbb3backed Orioles | 41c | 2,331$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.88 | 338 | 45.9%155 W · 183 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Orioles | 38c | 2,100$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Padres | 19c | 2,068$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.7 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Padres | 49c | 2,013$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.53 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Orioles | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 387 | 51.9%201 W · 186 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Orioles | 39c | 1,900$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Padres | 60c | 1,893$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.97 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Padres | 38c | 1,798$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Padres | 37c | 1,796$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.61 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Padres | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 345 | 50.7%175 W · 170 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…a077backed Orioles | 40c | 1,601$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.58 | 508 | 43.3%220 W · 288 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Orioles | 56c | 1,528$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.78 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Padres | 64c | 1,250$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Orioles | 41c | 1,195$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.11 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdb…886fbacked Padres | 59c | 1,169$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f8…3a79backed Padres | 53c | 1,046$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Orioles | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Orioles | 49c | 942$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.33 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6148…acadbacked Orioles | 40c | 931$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.6 | 245 | 47.3%116 W · 129 L | +21.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebd8…570cbacked Padres | 55c | 871.73$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.41 | 439 | 46%202 W · 237 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Orioles | 42c | 840.33$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.39 | 709 | 46.1%327 W · 382 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Padres | 60c | 750$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 207 | 48.8%101 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Padres | 61c | 700$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 320 | 42.8%137 W · 183 L | -23.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…90c6backed Orioles | 41c | 683$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…aae3backed Orioles | 40c | 633$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.8 | 444 | 43%191 W · 253 L | +21.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Orioles | 39c | 600$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…01fabacked Orioles | 39c | 576.9$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.91 | 513 | 47%241 W · 272 L | +32.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Padres | 61c | 573.77$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…722bbacked Padres | 43c | 561.86$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Orioles | 57c | 559.04$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.39 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…bae4backed Padres | 55c | 544.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Orioles | 38c | 544.09$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.89 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Padres | 58c | 515.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Padres | 59c | 508$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.72 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…bf3abacked Padres | 63c | 500.99$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.62 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed Orioles | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92ed…82c6backed Padres | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Orioles | 39c | 499.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.99 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e92…a962backed Orioles | 43c | 490.6$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +135%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Orioles | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 563 | 51%287 W · 276 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…0ba4backed Orioles | 41c | 487$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…1dbdbacked Padres | 59c | 477.37$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.65 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Padres | 60c | 474$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.69 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…0a55backed Padres | 59c | 433$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.47 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked Orioles | 36c | 426.08$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Orioles | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Padres | 61c | 394.38$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.57 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Orioles | 41c | 350$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.5 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Padres | 59c | 350$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.5 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…47c1backed Padres | 59c | 340.68$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -10.5wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Padres | 60c | 335.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409b…d3dabacked Padres | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Padres | 14c | 302.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2719…28ddbacked Orioles | 64c | 301.48$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 253 | 64.4%163 W · 90 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Orioles | 50c | 292.35$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.3 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…14edbacked Padres | 54c | 292.16$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbde…a050backed Orioles | 37c | 273.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.77 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Orioles | 40c | 268.34$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.01 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc3…8fffbacked Orioles | 45c | 261.13$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.27 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Orioles | 37c | 250$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…f6edbacked Padres | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…1d65backed Orioles | 73c | 245.51$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03d2…7fb7backed Padres | 64c | 239.06$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Orioles | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Padres | 31c | 231.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.73 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…6e64backed Padres | 47c | 210.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Orioles | 41c | 207.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.32 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b2…85efbacked Orioles | 39c | 200.01$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.01 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 46cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Orioles | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Padres | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Padres | 36c | 199.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Orioles | 51c | 196.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.06 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orioles vs. Padresthis page
- Orioles vs. Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.