TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Virtus.proof Virtus.pro, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$382,202
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$394,102

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $382,202 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 297 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6dbc…df52backed MOUZ0c76,602$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Virtus.pro40c62,029$24,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,175.9454556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed MOUZ63c22,127$13,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,844.8640051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed MOUZ60c12,122$7,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,251.9469644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed MOUZ58c10,898$6,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,311.7429143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Virtus.pro39c8,861$3,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,447.34650%23 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked MOUZ59c8,699$5,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,114.4680256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed Virtus.pro50c8,657$4,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,299.5913068.5%89 W · 41 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked MOUZ63c6,779$4,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,238.2534544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed MOUZ59c4,731$2,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,794.4696557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked MOUZ58c4,574$2,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,658.4241944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Virtus.pro29c4,297$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,068.4151049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc186…ad81backed Virtus.pro39c4,133$1,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,521.073767.6%25 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Virtus.pro36c3,420$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,196.8571342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa11c…e96fbacked Virtus.pro50c3,104$1,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.661973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick56cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed MOUZ69c2,996$2,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,055.6512720.5%26 W · 101 L-22.6wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-62.9%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x8041…05d6backed MOUZ64c2,935$1,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,878.533053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed MOUZ50c2,755$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.5696245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Virtus.pro53c2,631$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.1577458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked MOUZ62c2,606$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.4650749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e67…e2e6backed MOUZ61c2,579$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.34351.2%22 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ55c2,571$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.561,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked MOUZ59c2,127$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.7423653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Virtus.pro59c2,060$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.7892056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1994…d63cbacked MOUZ50c2,002$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.064261.9%26 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Virtus.pro32c1,976$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.591,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Virtus.pro41c1,946$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.131,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd607…6ddcbacked MOUZ1c1,800$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2690%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Virtus.pro40c1,750$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.9881029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ52c1,720$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.922,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Virtus.pro40c1,655$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.9247650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Virtus.pro43c1,592$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.9645061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef18…ea40backed Virtus.pro10c1,559$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,395.873925.6%10 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f9…0a00backed MOUZ63c1,546$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.989158.2%53 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Virtus.pro48c1,469$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.0220043.5%87 W · 113 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Virtus.pro10c1,396$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.1841242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed MOUZ61c1,355$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.4545046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Virtus.pro37c1,344$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.5155147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x810b…0848backed Virtus.pro27c1,306$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.9413144.3%58 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf437…ff9bbacked Virtus.pro68c1,209$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.4732148.3%155 W · 166 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked MOUZ1c1,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512217.2%21 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-60.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ54c1,155$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.981,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked MOUZ61c1,113$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.8136654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Virtus.pro43c1,032$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.2251751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76bb…4548backed MOUZ58c1,002$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.038660.5%52 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc38…d22bbacked MOUZ58c992.29$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.531172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed MOUZ61c985.64$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.579959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xda47…c2e9backed Virtus.pro34c980.74$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.8611858.5%69 W · 49 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb183…0badbacked MOUZ65c973.63$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Virtus.pro10c968.96$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.3457654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed MOUZ10c917$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.922552.4%118 W · 107 L+26.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb8df…8a93backed MOUZ60c854.03$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.47450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+216.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed MOUZ61c820.18$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.315259.6%31 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x276b…c0c8backed MOUZ6c810$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.51225%3 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+150.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x41a6…fbadbacked MOUZ61c797.46$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.336949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb66…c8dfbacked MOUZ61c778$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.581936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed MOUZ64c770$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.850769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4898…a723backed Virtus.pro53c743.44$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.643318.2%6 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-57.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed MOUZ35c736.51$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.8164744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed MOUZ63c721.91$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.89555.8%53 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked MOUZ61c716.08$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.6199844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df4…0540backed MOUZ58c706.61$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.652055%11 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x423f…eedcbacked Virtus.pro41c667.75$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.9612350.4%62 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked MOUZ53c659.18$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.1816945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x449c…eaf5backed MOUZ61c646.36$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.285848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked MOUZ80c646.15$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.9217444.8%78 W · 96 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ55c627.07$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.871,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Virtus.pro27c624.37$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.8726956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Virtus.pro36c621.31$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.2989749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Virtus.pro31c617.86$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.383622.2%8 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Virtus.pro43c614.61$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.491,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed MOUZ65c613.08$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.1457455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Virtus.pro32c602.66$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.752,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed Virtus.pro14c599.99$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.9910738.3%41 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Virtus.pro42c596.89$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.129240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Virtus.pro33c567.29$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.1367043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Virtus.pro38c548.8$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.777447.3%35 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Virtus.pro38c523.36$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.0752243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde7…cf8abacked MOUZ8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402532%8 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick18cpaid+47.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked MOUZ5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed MOUZ59c499.99$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.9956852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfac2…f35fbacked MOUZ61c499.98$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdde9…f432backed Virtus.pro41c495.98$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.387750.6%39 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked MOUZ64c494.6$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.5488166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x051d…1992backed Virtus.pro6c489.54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.368213.4%11 W · 71 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked MOUZ59c488.68$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.3213854.3%75 W · 63 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Virtus.pro43c482.9$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.2542145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Virtus.pro37c468.72$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.8418362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed MOUZ49c463.02$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.8844645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Virtus.pro41c460.39$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.9230647.4%145 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Virtus.pro39c444.76$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.451,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Virtus.pro41c439.06$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.881,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked MOUZ27c418.93$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1769033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked MOUZ67c415.59$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.4536851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x26d1…b4c8backed MOUZ28c413.28$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.855525.5%14 W · 41 L-7.3wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b56…9100backed MOUZ49c398.22$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.852466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked MOUZ59c397.53$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.5517954.2%97 W · 82 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked MOUZ63c394.83$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.7432951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked MOUZ58c394.11$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.4670052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked MOUZ55c382.35$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.134535.6%16 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.