CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde9e647e316b68e00ef4281c697eee9e21c06690420e8ce30bf0d3ef90a7eddc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Natus Vincere, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Team Falcons | 70c | 6,569$4,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.49 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 5,395$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.6 | 760 | 58%441 W · 319 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked Team Falcons | 70c | 4,443$3,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.31 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 4,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.95 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -14.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1136…0c2ebacked Team Falcons | 70c | 3,651$2,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.42 | 140 | 50.7%71 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36e…f91cbacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 1,939$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.82 | 298 | 39.3%117 W · 181 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 1,439$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.84 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Team Falcons | 70c | 1,041$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.29 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Team Falcons | 70c | 1,004$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.78 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Team Falcons | 70c | 751.13$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 500 | 51.4%257 W · 243 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 740$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed Team Falcons | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 211 | 37.4%79 W · 132 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…9097backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 652.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a4…8427backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 650.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Team Falcons | 70c | 645.08$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.81 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…a9c1backed Team Falcons | 71c | 625.35$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.35 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 146 | 50.7%74 W · 72 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b7…1454backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e5…d3c7backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 489.49$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 414.12$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.96 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f4…b38ebacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…2488backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 366.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 334$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d95…9e68backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Team Falcons | 69c | 323$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.13 | 740 | 54.6%404 W · 336 L | +15.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x786c…dd20backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 290.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 219 | 42.5%93 W · 126 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ed…9bb9backed Team Falcons | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Team Falcons | 71c | 232.39$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 446 | 75.3%336 W · 110 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed3…01e3backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Team Falcons | 70c | 190.17$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cf…80febacked Team Falcons | 71c | 154.93$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Team Falcons | 69c | 144.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 319 | 33.5%107 W · 212 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a19…eb54backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 99.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 89.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Team Falcons | 70c | 84.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 347 | 50.7%176 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 78.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…8cfbbacked Team Falcons | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…f194backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 43.5%81 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66a…ca12backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0483…483bbacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 52.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…da67backed Team Falcons | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 387 | 54.8%212 W · 175 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd468…f6febacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 460 | 42.8%197 W · 263 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Falcons | 75c | 47.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…1b97backed Team Falcons | 70c | 45.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…14efbacked Team Falcons | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Natus Vincere | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 807 | 41.3%333 W · 474 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdad…fb9ebacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Team Falcons | 70c | 39.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9444…048ebacked Team Falcons | 71c | 37.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Team Falcons | 70c | 33.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Team Falcons | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 500 | 56.6%283 W · 217 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…db1abacked Team Falcons | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 82 | 68.3%56 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Team Falcons | 70c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c6…1ee2backed Team Falcons | 71c | 22.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dd…f662backed Team Falcons | 69c | 22.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…7ecebacked Team Falcons | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Team Falcons | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…58f5backed Team Falcons | 70c | 19.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 378 | 55.3%209 W · 169 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b4…6815backed Team Falcons | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d1…1ec3backed Team Falcons | 70c | 16.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Team Falcons won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5)Natus Vincere won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5)Team Falcons won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.