TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Natus Vincere, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$415,823
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$502,273

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $415,823 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 275 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Natus Vincere17c69,452$11,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,765.11,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Team Falcons51c52,042$26,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,501.3313633.1%45 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked Natus Vincere49c41,599$20,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,383.754639.1%18 W · 28 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Natus Vincere49c15,000$7,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,349.9776058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Natus Vincere50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00033043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed Team Falcons50c10,000$5,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,983.3420354.2%110 W · 93 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked Team Falcons49c9,802$4,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,998.8925655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda6f…2874backed Team Falcons68c7,296$4,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,348.934843.8%21 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Team Falcons58c6,153$3,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,584.343844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Natus Vincere45c5,939$2,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,656.583652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Natus Vincere2c5,607$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9369624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x297d…f721backed Natus Vincere51c5,200$2,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,652714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x599a…6ef7backed Natus Vincere2c5,030$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.62119%4 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-29.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Natus Vincere7c4,804$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.7232832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63f5…09ddbacked Natus Vincere1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40339.1%3 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+45.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked Team Falcons50c3,920$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,96031253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Team Falcons68c3,717$2,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.917062.9%107 W · 63 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere9c3,064$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.391,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked Natus Vincere1c3,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4021522.3%48 W · 167 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-45.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e7…9f90backed Team Falcons51c2,938$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.841369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Natus Vincere35c2,711$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.375,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed Natus Vincere34c2,708$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.1410359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f38…477cbacked Team Falcons78c2,541$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.892138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere49c2,500$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.52,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6aeb…12b2backed Team Falcons60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0002958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7f9…d198backed Natus Vincere15c2,468$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.573234.4%11 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Natus Vincere19c2,400$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46832346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7126…bfcbbacked Natus Vincere51c2,357$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20719548.2%94 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere23c2,125$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.891,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Natus Vincere36c2,038$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.6465546.9%307 W · 348 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Natus Vincere50c2,010$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00517250.6%87 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Falcons65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.9945058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Natus Vincere51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked Natus Vincere51c1,937$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.8519546.2%90 W · 105 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere4c1,861$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6788746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0cc…c8ddbacked Natus Vincere2c1,850$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369216.3%15 W · 77 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+33.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8a6…5d97backed Team Falcons59c1,587$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.675052%26 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed Natus Vincere31c1,501$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.3112759.1%75 W · 52 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed Natus Vincere31c1,501$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.3119659.2%116 W · 80 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Natus Vincere31c1,500$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47046340.8%189 W · 274 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf9…5c67backed Team Falcons67c1,484$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.18666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fd2…5dedbacked Natus Vincere11c1,470$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.292240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed Natus Vincere19c1,403$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.9754732.2%176 W · 371 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Team Falcons58c1,387$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.9338454.2%208 W · 176 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked Team Falcons50c1,376$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.8517850%89 W · 89 L-0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed Natus Vincere50c1,302$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.7642651.6%220 W · 206 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0c…1249backed Natus Vincere20c1,300$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26118338.8%71 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5901…63a2backed Natus Vincere42c1,282$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.627041.4%29 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Team Falcons50c1,278$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.0617240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dcd…5ef7backed Natus Vincere16c1,241$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.530153.8%162 W · 139 L-1.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Falcons74c1,199$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.081,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac9c…50d8backed Natus Vincere1c1,175$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7525416.9%43 W · 211 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Team Falcons69c1,162$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.7315155%83 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Falcons50c1,094$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.4525846.1%119 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4036…0dd9backed Team Falcons48c1,053$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.532948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Natus Vincere17c1,050$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.159031.1%28 W · 62 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked Team Falcons50c1,020$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51035460.7%215 W · 139 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Team Falcons67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33019443.3%84 W · 110 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Natus Vincere50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Natus Vincere35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35045455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Natus Vincere1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed Team Falcons66c999.98$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.9937557.3%215 W · 160 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b5a…1457backed Natus Vincere14c949.49$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.9121143.1%91 W · 120 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed5a…656cbacked Team Falcons53c944.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.652853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Natus Vincere11c924$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.142,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed Team Falcons77c911.17$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.1715970.4%112 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Falcons64c900$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3272,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Falcons70c853.59$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.081,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe80c…f3e6backed Team Falcons50c803.58$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.5841938.9%163 W · 256 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Natus Vincere50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40053444.9%240 W · 294 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd925…f36fbacked Team Falcons51c792.93$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.549054.4%49 W · 41 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff26…a5ddbacked Team Falcons51c764.71$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.719443.6%41 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Natus Vincere5c706$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.33,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5020…36fcbacked Team Falcons53c678.49$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.294961.2%30 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc57f…1746backed Team Falcons49c628.97$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.786352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed Team Falcons49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.2496545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked Team Falcons73c607.01$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.8162738.8%243 W · 384 L-31.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04db…7703backed Natus Vincere12c600$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7241645.9%191 W · 225 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked Natus Vincere33c597.43$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.5652834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Natus Vincere50c580$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29064852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabcc…10b4backed Team Falcons49c571.43$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.432152.4%11 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2fd…5dabbacked Natus Vincere26c569.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.39746.4%45 W · 52 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed Natus Vincere33c555$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.1538650.8%196 W · 190 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Natus Vincere20c538.88$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7861754.8%338 W · 279 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42ab…3a19backed Natus Vincere37c523.49$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.65345.3%24 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb378…e4c0backed Natus Vincere5c510.42$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8338312.8%49 W · 334 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Natus Vincere51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25543640.6%177 W · 259 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Team Falcons50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25044939.2%176 W · 273 L-0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Natus Vincere11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5513743.8%60 W · 77 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25ab…6321backed Natus Vincere19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959723.7%23 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9499…d5bbbacked Natus Vincere20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f70…123dbacked Natus Vincere20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006026.7%16 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked Natus Vincere51c499.99$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520944.5%93 W · 116 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed Natus Vincere10c499.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5031647.5%150 W · 166 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed Natus Vincere27c497.47$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.961346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere51c494.12$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25260953.4%325 W · 284 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Natus Vincere18c450.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1758755.9%328 W · 259 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Team Falcons67c447.76$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.766854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Natus Vincere21c445.46$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.331,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.