Premier League · resolved market
Will Portsmouth FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdeb5bb4a8d241d2828ea06fc3bfff586d705862bc8d1914fe00c2c4690747c8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,113$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Yes | 8c | 1,950$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…9c54backed Yes | 18c | 1,805$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…c764backed Yes | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2827backed Yes | 5c | 1,030$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…9256backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 3c | 994.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a4…3358backed Yes | 13c | 775.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 13c | 774.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 196 | 54.6%107 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 5c | 711.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 38.3%54 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2367…c5b3backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 9c | 389.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 11c | 347.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 6c | 309.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x485d…be72backed Yes | 4c | 294.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…1e4bbacked Yes | 14c | 270.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 14c | 249.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…041fbacked Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc579…21cdbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 14c | 191.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 7c | 186.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 423 | 24.3%103 W · 320 L | -36.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 11c | 169.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 13c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7e…36e7backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 13c | 149.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 331 | 24.2%80 W · 251 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Yes | 9c | 125.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c6…2e9fbacked Yes | 11c | 111.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ec…c276backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…3528backed Yes | 14c | 69.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 80c | 16.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portsmouth FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-11?Yes won
- Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-01-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.