Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdef31835f3e6e640574fbe2b5117b6183832a156768774402dac8afecb3fcad2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 37c | 544.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 475.2$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.83 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 332.95$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 268.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 215.58$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 172.6$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 61c | 139.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 136.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 69c | 114.74$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 104.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 102.82$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e83…5839backed Yes | 36c | 101.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 101.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 35c | 99.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 36c | 97.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 28c | 79.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 29c | 68.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 64c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 36c | 61.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 30c | 61.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 60.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 25c | 59.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 56.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 55.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 72c | 54.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 33c | 54.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 54.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4b…f9bfbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 25c | 49.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 48.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 48.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 35c | 46.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 44.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 38.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 69c | 28.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 28.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 72c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 40c | 26.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 68c | 26.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 75c | 24.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed No | 75c | 24.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 66c | 21.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…cd79backed No | 70c | 21.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 74c | 17.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 70c | 16.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C or higher on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.