NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf687ef2d630b5cf025f422362046178c0ee834a2bab9e9576e04755c6f516cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78bc…5616backed Grizzlies | 11c | 5,783$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,161.35 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Grizzlies | 24c | 1,959$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.41 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Nuggets | 58c | 1,113$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.57 | 313 | 45.7%143 W · 170 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Nuggets | 48c | 605.5$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.64 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nuggets | 57c | 582.19$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.67 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41c1…9c76backed Grizzlies | 54c | 524.53$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.37 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Grizzlies | 28c | 503.79$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.47 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Grizzlies | 8c | 266.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.79 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Grizzlies | 14c | 256.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.25 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Nuggets | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Nuggets | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | +16.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…f09ebacked Nuggets | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…1f1ebacked Grizzlies | 17c | 174.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.21 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Grizzlies | 42c | 171.81$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.05 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Grizzlies | 51c | 159.04$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…f538backed Nuggets | 68c | 153.3$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.51 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Nuggets | 72c | 106$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 266 | 39.8%106 W · 160 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Nuggets | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Nuggets | 39c | 88.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Grizzlies | 44c | 87.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Grizzlies | 46c | 75.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Nuggets | 68c | 67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed Grizzlies | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Nuggets | 72c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Grizzlies | 68c | 46.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nuggets | 43c | 45.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Nuggets | 66c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Nuggets | 66c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 166 | 40.4%67 W · 99 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Nuggets | 66c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Nuggets | 66c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 234 | 41.5%97 W · 137 L | +13.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…be26backed Nuggets | 75c | 42.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Nuggets | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Nuggets | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 138 | 37.7%52 W · 86 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Grizzlies | 44c | 31.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 326 | 54.6%178 W · 148 L | +22.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 29.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb743…c116backed Nuggets | 75c | 29.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18c7…7613backed Nuggets | 67c | 29.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…b1aebacked Nuggets | 66c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked Nuggets | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 126 | 37.3%47 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Nuggets | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed Grizzlies | 56c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Nuggets | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Nuggets | 72c | 19.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Grizzlies won
- Cameron Johnson: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Cameron Johnson: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 127.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 243.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 244.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 245.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 246.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 247.5Over won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-21.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Nuggets (-22.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Nuggets (-23.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.