TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-23.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grizzliesof Nuggets, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$546,471
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$588,171

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $546,471 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x777d…5143backed Grizzlies51c295,524$150,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144,806.8619754.3%107 W · 90 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0f0…bad3backed Nuggets49c291,424$142,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142,797.58944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Nuggets49c39,619$19,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,413.3615952.8%84 W · 75 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Grizzlies50c30,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,00014842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Nuggets38c24,999$9,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,499.4610949.5%54 W · 55 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Grizzlies64c21,069$13,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,547.041,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Grizzlies51c19,999$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,799.711,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nuggets41c15,786$6,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,522.682,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets48c12,359$5,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,958.49,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Grizzlies57c11,426$6,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,890.1210747.7%51 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Grizzlies49c11,250$5,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,737.541,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Nuggets49c9,892$4,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8474847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Grizzlies51c9,520$4,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,664.5932351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Nuggets43c9,198$3,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,943.9326337.3%98 W · 165 L-1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Grizzlies62c5,428$3,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,062.779349.5%46 W · 47 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Grizzlies66c5,364$3,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,836.991,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Nuggets39c4,678$1,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,830.951,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Nuggets25c4,223$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.682,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Grizzlies61c4,147$2,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.762,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Grizzlies68c4,019$2,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.561,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Nuggets15c3,968$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.212835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets50c3,192$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.514,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Grizzlies51c2,701$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.591,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Nuggets50c2,413$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.6929849.3%147 W · 151 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Grizzlies51c2,381$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.161,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Nuggets50c2,062$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.5263746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Nuggets50c2,062$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.521,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Nuggets50c2,062$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.5258953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Nuggets50c2,057$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.1290650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Grizzlies50c1,900$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.0431046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Grizzlies53c1,777$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.24450%22 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Nuggets52c1,758$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.91,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Nuggets51c1,649$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.661,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Nuggets50c1,584$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.0137355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9101…78ddbacked Grizzlies74c1,572$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.662871.4%20 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+35.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Nuggets17c1,519$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.3789444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Nuggets50c1,455$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.520945.5%95 W · 114 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Nuggets30c1,350$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.3776653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Nuggets38c1,204$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.981,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Grizzlies48c1,040$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.835849.7%178 W · 180 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Grizzlies51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4903,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Nuggets50c970$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48562948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Nuggets50c969.98$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.9971654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Grizzlies51c931.11$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.271,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked Nuggets50c898.71$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.3512752.8%67 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Nuggets50c776$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38841753.2%222 W · 195 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Nuggets50c658.23$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.2442352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f8…ad19backed Grizzlies71c654.7$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.1513342.9%57 W · 76 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4559…1c26backed Nuggets48c623.82$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.111735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Grizzlies51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29449345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Grizzlies51c574.6$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.551,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Grizzlies52c466.92$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.1256447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdbe…e45bbacked Nuggets26c456.66$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.795843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Grizzlies50c404.53$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.2673649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Grizzlies49c397.82$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.282,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…44c1backed Nuggets50c388$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19411451.8%59 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Grizzlies51c381.97$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.1489850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Nuggets51c380.7$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.1122047.3%104 W · 116 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Grizzlies51c380.63$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.5128949.1%142 W · 147 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets51c380.42$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.26,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Nuggets30c380.38$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8210447.1%49 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64d6…aedbbacked Grizzlies70c353.61$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.8810657.5%61 W · 45 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Nuggets50c326.5$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.253,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb307…be4abacked Grizzlies78c324.53$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.7718842.6%80 W · 108 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc6…c936backed Grizzlies80c305$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6115547.1%73 W · 82 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2711…82b2backed Grizzlies56c292.08$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.521643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+57.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Nuggets50c289.16$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5365349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Nuggets45c282.22$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3317651.7%91 W · 85 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Nuggets36c268.19$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1557444.1%253 W · 321 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Nuggets49c266.44$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.421,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd421…7155backed Nuggets25c228.37$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.36142.6%26 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Grizzlies52c204.24$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.359255.4%328 W · 264 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa655…b10cbacked Grizzlies49c199.61$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.831464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x659f…04e4backed Nuggets50c194$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975547.3%26 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Nuggets50c193.98$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9961151.4%314 W · 297 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…86dbbacked Nuggets50c193.98$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9911648.3%56 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Nuggets50c193.98$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9937647.3%178 W · 198 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked Nuggets51c190.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0614640.4%59 W · 87 L-9.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Nuggets51c190.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0651647.5%245 W · 271 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea8d…89b1backed Grizzlies52c177.31$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1113153.4%70 W · 61 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x088a…9ee7backed Grizzlies61c160.48$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.835056%28 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Nuggets19c157.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9734255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Nuggets19c154.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5152053.3%277 W · 243 L+29.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Grizzlies53c150.23$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.531,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Grizzlies51c150$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.535744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15bb…2033backed Nuggets50c145.48$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7410345.6%47 W · 56 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ad…5692backed Nuggets21c143.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.965733.3%19 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Grizzlies52c143.72$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2529352.9%155 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e13…c506backed Nuggets50c139.86$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.934641.3%19 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Nuggets12c136$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7736154.8%198 W · 163 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Grizzlies51c130$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6493543.6%408 W · 527 L-32.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Nuggets22c120$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.440440.1%162 W · 242 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Nuggets48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5845251.1%231 W · 221 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Nuggets23c118$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5278639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd71…6714backed Grizzlies52c116.54$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.945166.7%34 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x01dc…183ebacked Grizzlies52c116.54$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.946734.3%23 W · 44 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Grizzlies52c112.77$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5133251.2%170 W · 162 L-0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd226…38b4backed Grizzlies51c111.88$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3239448.7%192 W · 202 L-1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Grizzlies49c110$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.61,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Nuggets33c106.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.21,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.