Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf97bc6047291fd485cc932ca6b3d3c75c977c71de41618fefd78dbecf9c6fa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed No | 65c | 775.06$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.06 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 59c | 465.95$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.29 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…7db2backed Yes | 54c | 375.24$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 321.4$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 32c | 320.3$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ca…1ec7backed No | 70c | 252.6$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 185.85$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 63c | 158$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 147.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 128.26$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 37c | 127.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 121.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 21c | 119$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 66c | 117.66$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 37c | 98.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 25c | 82.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 76.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 17c | 65.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 25c | 64.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 76c | 62.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 47c | 61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 74c | 59.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 23c | 59.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 58.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 64c | 55.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 52.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 51.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 60c | 50.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…3dbfbacked Yes | 43c | 47.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 39c | 45.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 45.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 37c | 44.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 43.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 40.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 51c | 31.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 45c | 23.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 75c | 23.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 63c | 21.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 51c | 21.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed No | 78c | 19.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 54c | 19.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 54c | 18.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 69c | 18.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 77c | 13.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C or higher on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.