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Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by 5–10%?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$128,538
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,073

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,538 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x011f…1122backed Yes1c38,880$547 inLost-$547.18659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-80.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes30c10,483$3,168 inLost-$3,167.978747.1%41 W · 46 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+29.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12e4…dfc2backed No50c9,765$4,868 inWon+$4,896.71060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e25…9712backed Yes5c7,193$352 inLost-$351.550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes65c6,010$3,906 inLost-$3,906.41957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No39c5,996$2,338 inWon+$3,657.841020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6b…13f2backed Yes3c3,764$131 inLost-$130.87100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes1c3,636$39 inLost-$39.3716325.8%42 W · 121 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No39c2,536$987 inWon+$1,549.6512238.5%47 W · 75 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes3c2,314$61 inLost-$60.97385.3%2 W · 36 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-89.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No40c1,889$749 inWon+$1,140.562630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe373…4807backed Yes3c1,736$55 inLost-$54.88100%0 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed Yes42c1,486$624 inLost-$623.855646.4%26 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes5c1,279$65 inLost-$64.611553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4e…297bbacked No46c1,170$541 inWon+$628.071266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+35.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No34c1,168$394 inWon+$774.296847.1%32 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No40c895.55$358 inWon+$537.5117352.6%91 W · 82 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c1b…4b4fbacked Yes58c887.75$514 inLost-$513.981241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No38c881.96$334 inWon+$547.824845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad7a…f00cbacked Yes3c820$26 inLost-$25.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No65c547.97$356 inWon+$191.814546.9%68 W · 77 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No70c525.14$370 inWon+$155.356546.2%30 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No70c459.48$321 inWon+$138.26640.9%27 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No75c449.02$338 inWon+$111.346443.8%28 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No60c448.66$271 inWon+$177.936836.8%25 W · 43 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No70c420$293 inWon+$126.966241.9%26 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No59c408.44$240 inWon+$167.977338.4%28 W · 45 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda34…b1debacked Yes7c400.66$30 inLost-$29.65520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes69c387.66$266 inLost-$265.73933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No61c385.63$236 inWon+$149.586645.5%30 W · 36 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb9…2b63backed Yes8c364.03$28 inLost-$28.033060%18 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No75c361.92$272 inWon+$90.416544.6%29 W · 36 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3577…9cedbacked Yes39c350$137 inLost-$13750%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No69c306.85$213 inWon+$93.716139.3%24 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No56c305.87$170 inWon+$1366839.7%27 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes11c299.6$33 inLost-$32.841118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No72c292.78$211 inWon+$81.936546.2%30 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac7a…414fbacked Yes9c240.89$22 inLost-$22.491435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes14c193.38$26 inLost-$26.435038%19 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes35c163.61$56 inLost-$56.472133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Yes31c137$42 inLost-$42.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69d1…e441backed Yes61c120$73 inLost-$72.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes60c100$60 inLost-$6012238.5%47 W · 75 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cc5…8a9fbacked Yes61c100$61 inLost-$6110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Yes29c99.52$28 inLost-$28.473256.3%18 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+67.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x98ac…40d9backed No70c70$49 inWon+$21.15360.4%32 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes24c60.64$15 inLost-$14.779711.3%11 W · 86 L-20.9wins-0.22per pick33cpaid-79.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xf453…a674backed Yes67c58.32$39 inLost-$39.282050%10 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No61c47$29 inWon+$18.4814252.8%75 W · 67 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c47$32 inWon+$15.0449036.7%180 W · 310 L-35.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd542…f187backed No39c35.82$14 inWon+$21.85825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-42.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86f0…610cbacked Yes50c33.33$17 inLost-$16.671968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+39.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb59…b785backed No71c23.5$17 inWon+$6.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes64c20$13 inLost-$12.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No56c20$11 inWon+$8.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f38…9a3cbacked No54c20$11 inWon+$9.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No58c17.65$10 inWon+$7.379748.5%47 W · 50 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.