Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by less than 5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc750896c4a57475a92ef3b2f993abe4d30d051b07cd99e64a5ad5e14c90e7c21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 74c | 20,186$14,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,968.11 | 173 | 52.6%91 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e4…dfc2backed Yes | 39c | 14,399$5,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,781.21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 17c | 10,183$1,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,422.75 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 1c | 9,838$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 19c | 6,746$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,452.63 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 2,471$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.5 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…4807backed No | 4c | 1,520$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…4b4fbacked Yes | 52c | 1,137$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 1,095$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.75 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 18c | 985.69$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.95 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 52c | 928.62$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.86 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 61c | 868.82$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.38 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 11c | 831.36$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.91 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 4c | 730$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 9c | 605.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…d5c5backed Yes | 24c | 582.15$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 17c | 578.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed Yes | 31c | 499.62$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.38 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 493.15$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.39 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6b…13f2backed No | 4c | 479.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 49c | 468.42$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.31 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 34c | 383.81$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 25c | 350$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 9c | 346.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 10c | 343.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 23c | 339.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe99f…af99backed No | 4c | 322.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…297bbacked Yes | 59c | 280.44$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.32 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Yes | 28c | 279.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 25c | 243.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 51c | 220$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 30c | 194.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 42c | 160$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 15c | 142.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.97 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +11.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 53c | 133.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked No | 75c | 119.23$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 14c | 112.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 109.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 21c | 109.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 17c | 101.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.43 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 57c | 71.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 67.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -20.9wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 60.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 30c | 54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 133 | 48.9%65 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 70c | 39.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 30.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 62c | 28.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…3cdfbacked No | 53c | 28.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…3513backed No | 64c | 23.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 20.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 171 | 32.2%55 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 70c | 17.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by less than 5%?this page
- Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by 10–15%?No won
- Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by 15–20%?No won
- Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by 20–25%?No won
- Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by 5–10%?No won
- Will Ralph Norman win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by 15–20%?No won
- Will Ralph Norman win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by 5–10%?No won
- Will Ralph Norman win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.