Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfa582956ec973137395058190283eb0488329d456d95969f63679327fdea0d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,914$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 15c | 2,952$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.98 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c8…c312backed Yes | 1c | 2,013$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 21c | 951.01$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.39 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 42c | 710.97$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.15 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 56c | 567.54$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.2 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 61c | 513.52$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.77 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 37c | 488.8$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.5 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 44c | 410.04$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.77 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 49c | 377.7$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.8 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 53c | 324.91$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.71 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 63c | 308.98$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.48 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 27c | 299.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 297.65$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.02 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 51c | 282.71$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.32 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 272.02$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.03 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 61c | 264.22$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.21 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed No | 58c | 251.91$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.71 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 243.01$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.59 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 36c | 240.02$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 57c | 215$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…c252backed Yes | 41c | 210$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f2…7395backed No | 72c | 198.03$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…c535backed Yes | 46c | 195.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed Yes | 41c | 194.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 53c | 188.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed No | 57c | 176.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.42 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…7bb7backed Yes | 42c | 175.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed No | 60c | 162.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 41c | 157.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 51c | 150.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d7…def8backed Yes | 39c | 149.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 39c | 137.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 133.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x647b…a7afbacked Yes | 43c | 133.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…d0afbacked Yes | 35c | 124.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 27c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 72c | 116.86$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf31d…a26dbacked No | 56c | 107.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 38c | 103.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 55c | 103.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…0fb8backed Yes | 28c | 103.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 46c | 100.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2872…59c3backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…5845backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 44c | 99.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 40c | 99.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 50c | 98.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 61c | 96.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa42…b9ebbacked Yes | 54c | 92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…67aabacked Yes | 53c | 88.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…9c72backed Yes | 29c | 86.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 45c | 81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 80.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 52c | 77.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7034backed Yes | 52c | 77.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 39c | 77.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 60c | 72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 55c | 70.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 49c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 53c | 68.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba7…1288backed No | 60c | 66.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…a837backed No | 60c | 64.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef3…519dbacked No | 61c | 62.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked No | 61c | 60.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb422…b749backed Yes | 49c | 60.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 30c | 59.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47f…d551backed No | 55c | 56.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 27c | 55.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 54.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 53.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 37c | 53.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 59c | 53.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…96c1backed No | 70c | 51.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 45c | 51.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…e727backed No | 69c | 51.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…d5bfbacked Yes | 32c | 50.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes | 60c | 50.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 70c | 49.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 30c | 48.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…ab98backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 47c | 47.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…493abacked Yes | 42c | 47.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 35c | 45.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked Yes | 44c | 45.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 34c | 45.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 39c | 44.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…03b5backed Yes | 36c | 44.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…72e4backed Yes | 47c | 43.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or higher on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.