Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana reach $200 October 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfa8c4c917973c833395da520867d7cd82522bc33b95e1da984c6061374b74ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $203,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 54c | 14,509$7,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,817.87 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…dca3backed Yes | 28c | 12,934$3,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,333.79 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…572ebacked No | 0c | 6,729$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 59c | 6,620$3,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,906.23 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,363$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 5c | 5,403$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 22c | 4,608$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,594.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…6720backed No | 5c | 4,477$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 37c | 4,250$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,688.91 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed Yes | 50c | 2,860$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.53 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 49c | 2,147$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…db3dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,556$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 47c | 1,226$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.76 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8678…65f4backed Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fe…a356backed No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ed…5d3dbacked Yes | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked No | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 28c | 607.99$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.64 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37c…ba27backed No | 73c | 300$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984c…a21abacked No | 23c | 299$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…15b5backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 37c | 290.45$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.58 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc700…45fbbacked No | 74c | 268.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…12a6backed No | 13c | 222.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 16c | 220$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a1…d158backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked Yes | 25c | 198.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.08 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…9f23backed No | 72c | 149.9$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked No | 62c | 130.93$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0324…bed7backed No | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 28c | 104.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfded…28aabacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…576abacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…b55ebacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…50bebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…3463backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…4b40backed No | 51c | 99.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…c30ebacked Yes | 49c | 93.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed No | 33c | 91.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 35c | 86.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8faf…4180backed Yes | 32c | 84.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…746fbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15aa…9c39backed No | 77c | 64.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f90…153dbacked No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb05e…4fcebacked Yes | 30c | 54.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5d…231dbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12e…822dbacked No | 68c | 49.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x113d…5b8fbacked Yes | 32c | 39.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…a726backed Yes | 34c | 38.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d8…a285backed Yes | 30c | 36.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +538.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 71c | 33.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7b77…41f0backed Yes | 36c | 28.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf11…a7babacked No | 66c | 28.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0007…7075backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…f927backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3724…706abacked No | 66c | 20.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana reach $200 October 20-26?this page
- Will Solana dip to $150 October 20-26?No won
- Will Solana dip to $160 October 20-26?No won
- Will Solana dip to $170 October 20-26?No won
- Will Solana dip to $180 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $210 October 20-26?No won
- Will Solana reach $220 October 20-26?No won
- Will Solana reach $230 October 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.