TailMyPicks

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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Patins da Ferrari vs ODDIK (BO3) - CCT South America Series 4 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Patins da Ferrariof Patins da Ferrari, ODDIK
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$82,895
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,155

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,895 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd4fe…c916backed ODDIK54c9,239$4,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9791668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0478…37c3backed Patins da Ferrari53c9,229$4,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,309.119952.5%52 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Patins da Ferrari52c6,875$3,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,327.184658.4%494 W · 352 L+60.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Patins da Ferrari51c5,307$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,586.7666551.9%345 W · 320 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Patins da Ferrari43c3,127$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.125,47446.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Patins da Ferrari68c2,949$2,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.832552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed ODDIK47c2,532$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.232,52043%1,084 W · 1,436 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked ODDIK47c2,513$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.11,00752.4%528 W · 479 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc311…bdf6backed ODDIK48c1,973$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.12650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x805d…f780backed Patins da Ferrari53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.792853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked Patins da Ferrari68c1,808$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.4811346.9%53 W · 60 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fe…5cbfbacked ODDIK48c1,634$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.322040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Patins da Ferrari55c1,622$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.041,76859.2%1,047 W · 721 L+105.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbae0…de73backed ODDIK48c1,321$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.061752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed ODDIK47c1,284$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.1980542.2%340 W · 465 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed ODDIK47c1,212$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.1438841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Patins da Ferrari58c1,043$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.932,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed Patins da Ferrari53c1,020$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.443055.1%237 W · 193 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked ODDIK46c984.5$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.8722645.1%102 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7c…763fbacked Patins da Ferrari53c940.12$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.121566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked Patins da Ferrari43c932.06$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.2712343.9%54 W · 69 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked ODDIK39c931.96$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.483,41529.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L-275.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked ODDIK46c873$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.5819351.3%99 W · 94 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed ODDIK40c767.22$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.275438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Patins da Ferrari50c721.66$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.231,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed ODDIK49c685.53$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.112,60830.9%807 W · 1,801 L-103.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed ODDIK54c681$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.0742154.6%230 W · 191 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd575…0ee1backed ODDIK41c673.46$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.3720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed ODDIK48c627.27$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.0930841.6%128 W · 180 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked ODDIK53c624.43$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.142,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed ODDIK34c614.06$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.0661138.1%233 W · 378 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d40…dd57backed ODDIK48c612.5$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29411840.7%48 W · 70 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked ODDIK36c606.38$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.462,33042.5%991 W · 1,339 L-71.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1032…4243backed ODDIK48c597$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.562231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b0e…bd73backed ODDIK47c582.78$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.94944.9%22 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce3f…3543backed ODDIK46c566.53$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.252853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Patins da Ferrari46c547.89$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.2123245.3%105 W · 127 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked ODDIK40c522.84$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.081,83041.6%762 W · 1,068 L-68.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Patins da Ferrari55c502.84$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.5866446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed ODDIK48c502.04$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24032345.2%146 W · 177 L+12.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Patins da Ferrari50c485.62$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.7425446.1%117 W · 137 L-17.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-17.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed ODDIK46c475$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.522843.9%100 W · 128 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed ODDIK49c474.87$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.522750.2%114 W · 113 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked ODDIK30c437.64$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.0774633.4%249 W · 497 L-48.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed Patins da Ferrari46c435$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.7535153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed Patins da Ferrari52c434.93$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.8164554.4%351 W · 294 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffe3…eaafbacked ODDIK48c430.98$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.871838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed ODDIK49c406.81$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19916349.7%81 W · 82 L-19.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked ODDIK48c403.37$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.6213652.9%72 W · 64 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ODDIK46c400$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1845,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed ODDIK49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19638052.6%200 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed ODDIK48c387.5$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1863938.5%15 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3147…d561backed ODDIK30c379.52$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.231241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+48.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Patins da Ferrari56c376$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.543,16545.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L-74.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed ODDIK42c374.43$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.62,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked ODDIK51c366.65$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.9948548.7%236 W · 249 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf059…e97cbacked Patins da Ferrari49c365.09$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.743354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x82a1…e38bbacked Patins da Ferrari44c363.58$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.068441.7%35 W · 49 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d29…872abacked Patins da Ferrari71c348.85$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.975362.3%33 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Patins da Ferrari62c348.17$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.4168059.3%403 W · 277 L+64.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked ODDIK42c347.89$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.812,59947.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L-30.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed ODDIK39c341$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.351,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Patins da Ferrari51c331.99$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.091,01753.4%543 W · 474 L+65.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6575…c2c7backed ODDIK48c318.75$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec8c…3bcdbacked ODDIK47c312.95$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.1935131.1%109 W · 242 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked ODDIK45c308.44$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.131,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed ODDIK48c305$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.413646.3%63 W · 73 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked ODDIK53c303$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5917055.3%94 W · 76 L+11.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed ODDIK48c301.18$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5740439.6%160 W · 244 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e9…e1dcbacked ODDIK52c300.11$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.19650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed ODDIK58c300$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.9285351.7%441 W · 412 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked ODDIK50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505565.5%36 W · 19 L+8.0wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+37%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2176…b83dbacked ODDIK58c299.99$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.992646.2%12 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3d1…de26backed ODDIK48c291.67$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1405750.9%29 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed Patins da Ferrari63c288.69$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.9816858.9%99 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Patins da Ferrari51c287.91$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.844,04050.9%2,057 W · 1,983 L+71.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13c8…a814backed Patins da Ferrari52c283.81$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.239951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6efa…a0a7backed Patins da Ferrari50c280$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.3330247%142 W · 160 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed ODDIK50c280$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14046354%250 W · 213 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed ODDIK49c275.88$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1823732.9%78 W · 159 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8412…55f3backed ODDIK44c270.75$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1192611.5%3 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-69.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked ODDIK55c269$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.4738032.1%122 W · 258 L-18.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Patins da Ferrari42c268.27$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.2725848.8%126 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17b0…2c88backed Patins da Ferrari43c260$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.131776.5%13 W · 4 L+4.9wins+0.29per pick47cpaid+67.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed ODDIK55c258$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.981,06242.2%448 W · 614 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b3…c2d7backed ODDIK38c254.68$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.866457.8%37 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Patins da Ferrari52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201,31444.3%582 W · 732 L+47.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed Patins da Ferrari46c250$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13539040.8%159 W · 231 L+30.7wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaebf…4e6abacked Patins da Ferrari53c250$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.526554.3%144 W · 121 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Patins da Ferrari59c241$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.81,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed ODDIK48c238.56$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5138838.7%150 W · 238 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed Patins da Ferrari57c235.63$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.8340266.2%266 W · 136 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffa…7710backed ODDIK48c225.65$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3110643.4%46 W · 60 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Patins da Ferrari53c212.91$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.7337848.1%182 W · 196 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54bc…b4e9backed ODDIK48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004845.8%22 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked ODDIK37c207.79$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.094,89737.4%1,832 W · 3,065 L-245.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6955…867abacked ODDIK33c204.4$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.794854.2%26 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef21…18babacked ODDIK53c201.87$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.962536%9 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked ODDIK38c201.47$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.522,45434.4%845 W · 1,609 L-189.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xae27…6fb2backed ODDIK32c200.02$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0115831%49 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.