TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,947
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,979

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,947 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef32…265cbacked No63c2,031$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.068845.5%40 W · 48 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x06d6…44bcbacked Yes38c1,932$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.193135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ad1…3556backed Yes36c1,381$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.041030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3e4…013dbacked No2c1,374$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.165954.2%32 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No77c1,231$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.944,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed Yes42c1,227$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.7643663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f11…53b0backed Yes49c1,198$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.565349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes28c577.85$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.8521236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes31c529.14$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.885,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes9c500$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4552,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes34c427.42$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.015,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No6c415.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.966219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes34c411.76$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.766425%16 W · 48 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes40c380.82$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22931936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No70c372.75$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.062,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes22c370.92$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.421,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No69c365.25$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes39c349.09$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.186,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes10c310.02$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.023611.1%4 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-56.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No69c305.52$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.6158152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes16c304.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.263,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1891,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No61c289.28$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No66c285.55$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.074,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes41c246.37$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.361,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes22c246.25$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.356627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes77c227.35$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.752,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No74c220.72$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes25c209.42$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.171,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes15c200.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.0253258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c199.5$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.735,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes64c193.94$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.727237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes9c190$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17234918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes30c184.53$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.821,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes56c175.15$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.792,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes23c161$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.9763143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes19c151.8$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.4742849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes61c141.66$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.191,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c139.43$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.847,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfc…26febacked Yes15c137.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.192516%4 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-29.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xba2d…d402backed Yes37c135.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.52944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+29%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf86c…559fbacked Yes33c133$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.291921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick32cpaid+13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes15c130$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.596620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e65…9d5fbacked Yes37c128.76$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.12742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No61c125$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.154,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes34c124.92$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0242148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes36c124.13$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.692,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed Yes24c123.76$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.6561760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes17c121.58$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.8555954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed Yes16c121.21$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.3518033.9%61 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes26c120.8$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3912157%69 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes28c120.38$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.181,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf6…5a54backed No68c119.1$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.991030%3 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-46.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No74c119$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9226265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No61c116.88$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.663,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No24c115.51$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1498160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes37c113.51$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.511,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes24c108$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9828742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa595…cdf1backed Yes71c106.72$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7215561.9%96 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No73c106.36$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4697570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes26c104.38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2471649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes24c103.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5315334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes18c103$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.911,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes19c102.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.799741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes24c100.66$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.198247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4149…8147backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808444%37 W · 47 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x13d3…415ebacked Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7842253.1%224 W · 198 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes37c99.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4916046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes16c99.64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.321,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaea…1d63backed Yes37c98.52$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.07650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ba7…9321backed Yes38c97.37$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.37862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No67c95.66$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.82,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No71c91.68$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.963255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed No67c89.8$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6033351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes40c88.75$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.286439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…c110backed Yes37c86.93$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.77650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No62c85.25$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8675546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No73c80.76$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.192,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No74c80$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9242160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xff32…7da9backed No66c79.97$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.516536.9%24 W · 41 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6aa2…05fbbacked Yes14c78$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.083441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes58c77.65$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.636,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes26c76.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8732738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes35c75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc950…9420backed Yes17c72.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3413035.4%46 W · 84 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes42c72.69$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.161,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06a3…fa45backed No69c72.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015660.9%95 W · 61 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes68c69.28$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.262,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes18c68.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.272,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes17c68.59$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.937413.5%10 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes19c68.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4324542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No73c68.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9868867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes20c67.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4293034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes20c67.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8810547.6%50 W · 55 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ba…d4fbbacked Yes42c66.67$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.672015%3 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-58.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes16c66.52$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.152,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes21c65.68$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.038641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes17c65.19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9840525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No55c64$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.24,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes26c59.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.431,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.