TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,579
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,376

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,579 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes1c19,209$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.927223.6%17 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes44c3,364$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.2928324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes79c1,832$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.2735429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No31c1,194$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.74,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x100a…0919backed No57c933$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.19966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes9c704.86$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5228441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4207…b81bbacked No44c606.75$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.032759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+47%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No24c567.32$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.556,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No34c483.36$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.893,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No19c453.72$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.162,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No13c448.98$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.5661820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed No22c386.23$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.0564460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No31c383.71$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.374,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f11…53b0backed Yes46c358.7$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.245349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No30c345.97$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.2724262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed No30c337.65$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.451,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c336.23$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.7912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes33c330.43$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.41,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed No11c326.05$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.0428244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes47c306$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.823,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No26c303.34$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.8667158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0431…8874backed No63c299.32$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes62c285.61$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.126,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No19c260.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.1361760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed No18c249.55$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.2939346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed No13c228.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.5243050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed No75c226.4$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.855752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No9c224.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.461,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c219$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.729,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822030%6 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-47.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes57c200$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.356627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No24c199.58$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.284,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No44c199.5$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.435,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes50c198.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006425%16 W · 48 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes45c197.28$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No58c194.3$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6136150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No21c191.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.961,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c189.1$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No21c186.49$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.3322550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No58c182.68$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.222,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No25c163.23$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.0877151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes57c159.82$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c152.41$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.535,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No14c150.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.327,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xace6…a1eabacked Yes39c146.15$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No17c140.6$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.871,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No17c139$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.481,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4149…8147backed No17c134.57$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.468444%37 W · 47 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6cd…eaecbacked No9c128$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.4814660.3%88 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No60c125$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes40c122.92$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.171,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No57c121.61$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2983360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No55c119$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.552,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes43c117.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No58c116.2$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.314,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes35c115.42$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.722,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1617…d790backed No14c114.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.17666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+100.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc9e…251fbacked No15c113.14$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.459960.6%60 W · 39 L+16.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+42.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No59c110.6$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7394552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No58c110.56$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.563,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x463a…af96backed No24c109.87$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5712052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No28c109.81$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.942,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes53c102.53$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes52c102.26$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.383,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes45c100.22$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4521236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0524542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed No10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9096620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1104…1f70backed No20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8014151.8%73 W · 68 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafb7…e027backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.51323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-1.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd496…4956backed No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ba7…9321backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ca…59eebacked Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.55729.8%17 W · 40 L-11.6wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x13d3…415ebacked Yes42c99.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9942253.1%224 W · 198 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes36c99.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes54c97.9$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8712941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed No30c96.67$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5810463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes42c96.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404050%20 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed No13c95.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.424751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked No16c92.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9441331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes80c92.52$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.712927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No11c92.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.2153951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xae5f…bc30backed No14c90.51$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.79339.8%37 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes26c90$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.434918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No58c86.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4718565.4%121 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes53c84.69$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.922,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No25c83.19$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes59c78$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3293034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No23c77.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.8115236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No22c77.32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.442,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes40c76.88$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.751,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No63c76.63$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.498,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes59c74.84$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.42,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No45c71.09$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.052,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No58c69.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3690555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c65.44$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.449,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes63c62.47$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3299962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes29c62.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.11,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9876…86b4backed No57c61.61$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.491566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes40c60.7$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.281,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.