NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe08c94092a4ddd82b0d411077e0722d089982b4b5e94c5fc8620d50cbbb0074a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 867$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.67 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb240…df51backed Over | 61c | 800$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.6wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 46c | 514.13$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.57 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 53c | 486.98$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.58 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8126…9d18backed Under | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.06 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 156.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.84 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 36c | 138.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 35c | 105.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 101.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 100.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e9…fcfabacked Under | 61c | 81.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 40c | 77.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…5a30backed Under | 65c | 61.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 37c | 41.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Under | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 39c | 39.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Under | 55c | 35.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 61c | 31.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…5e2dbacked Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 61c | 24.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…a390backed Over | 45c | 23.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…31d9backed Under | 51c | 23.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5this page
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Bobby Portis: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Bobby Portis: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Bulls vs. BucksBucks won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.