NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x143d6a85bc574f9336b0ab76262b5adbee29151eb3b39deafed4706b82156a1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ec1…057cbacked Under | 58c | 47,857$27,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,901.87 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 27,089$11,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,672.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Under | 58c | 10,000$5,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,800 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…7c26backed Over | 42c | 8,700$3,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,046 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 42c | 4,323$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,493.75 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098b…1fa5backed Over | 42c | 4,012$1,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,326.74 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 42c | 4,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,320 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 42c | 3,331$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,947.82 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 1,683$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.1 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 43c | 1,630$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.43 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5200backed Under | 59c | 1,220$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.51 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50f…3ad3backed Over | 42c | 1,188$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.1 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Over | 42c | 1,162$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.9 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 42c | 1,160$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.8 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 42c | 1,160$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.8 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 41c | 1,093$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.09 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 50c | 749.14$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.64 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…1c08backed Under | 59c | 661$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.99 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 45c | 557.49$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.33 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Over | 47c | 507.1$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.86 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4a…2881backed Over | 42c | 465.48$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.98 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 42c | 460.04$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.89 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 59c | 381.36$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 51c | 338.07$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.17 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abf…6024backed Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c3…ed8fbacked Under | 59c | 243.9$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.9 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 53c | 199.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 178.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…5e8ebacked Over | 43c | 119.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 42c | 118$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 54c | 112.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 47c | 62.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 43c | 53.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Over | 55c | 50.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 45.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Over | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…f80dbacked Under | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 58c | 39.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe63b…b7c9backed Under | 59c | 36.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e1…ec41backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…50acbacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 46c | 29.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…664dbacked Over | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 24.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Under | 58c | 21.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…0b08backed Under | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5this page
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Bobby Portis: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Bobby Portis: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Bulls vs. BucksBucks won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.