NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1ac93d7538e6b9dfc774a74b651c40fb3a57c1a88135bf3620494fe06c26f0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 53c | 86,561$45,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,811.89 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 47c | 31,681$14,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,790.79 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 27,886$13,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,679.06 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 48c | 15,940$7,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,331.54 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 12,500$5,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,625 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Under | 53c | 6,113$3,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,240 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Over | 48c | 5,800$2,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,016 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 5,789$2,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,051.24 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a43…565fbacked Under | 52c | 5,769$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Under | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Under | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Under | 51c | 3,884$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 266 | 37.2%99 W · 167 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44d4…1970backed Over | 51c | 3,761$1,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,843.07 | 167 | 52.1%87 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 3,462$1,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,764.42 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…62c5backed Over | 47c | 3,333$1,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.49 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 48c | 2,739$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.07 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 51c | 1,348$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.51 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked Under | 53c | 1,207$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Under | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…575fbacked Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 52c | 862.18$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.92 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Over | 47c | 624.71$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.1 | 375 | 57.6%216 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e68…3215backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Under | 50c | 381.6$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.8 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -17.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Under | 54c | 117$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…686fbacked Under | 15c | 104.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 244 | 9.4%23 W · 221 L | -27.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 52c | 102.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Over | 48c | 58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 282 | 43.3%122 W · 160 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…340fbacked Under | 52c | 57.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Over | 49c | 56.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 50.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1d…4773backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Over | 48c | 40.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…1094backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…0671backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Over | 47c | 36.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c3…ed8fbacked Over | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 49c | 31.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Over | 51c | 26.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 213 | 57.7%123 W · 90 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…ab18backed Under | 50c | 24.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeea…0c83backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5this page
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Bobby Portis: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Bobby Portis: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Bulls vs. BucksBucks won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.