TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,941
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$134,167

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,941 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked Under53c86,561$45,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,811.8940446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Over47c31,681$14,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,790.791,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c27,886$13,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,679.069,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over48c15,940$7,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,331.544,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over47c12,500$5,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,6252,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Under53c6,113$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,24041649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over48c5,800$2,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,01658449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over47c5,789$2,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,051.243,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1a43…565fbacked Under52c5,769$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Under52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08024549%120 W · 125 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Under51c3,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00042648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Under51c3,884$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00026637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44d4…1970backed Over51c3,761$1,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.0716752.1%87 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under51c3,462$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,764.428,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6337…62c5backed Over47c3,333$1,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,766.492646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over48c2,739$1,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.0765750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under51c1,348$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.511,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Under53c1,207$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6399952.5%52 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Under52c1,154$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60032150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6183…575fbacked Over48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.671540%6 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under52c862.18$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.923,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Over47c624.71$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.137557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e68…3215backed Over49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1611755.6%65 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Under50c381.6$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.818241.2%75 W · 107 L-17.6wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Under54c117$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6441048.3%198 W · 212 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8c…686fbacked Under15c104.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.752449.4%23 W · 221 L-27.5wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-72.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over52c102.74$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.953,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Over48c58$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1628243.3%122 W · 160 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0157…340fbacked Under52c57.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010046%46 W · 54 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Over49c56.81$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9776250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under48c50.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.012,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.55,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Under52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2638845.6%177 W · 211 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d1d…4773backed Over49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.828744.8%39 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff7…9ab6backed Over48c40.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1345460.4%274 W · 180 L+21.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbed1…1094backed Over51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.65865.5%38 W · 20 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38d0…0671backed Under50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf628…ba6fbacked Over47c36.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.68440.5%34 W · 50 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80c3…ed8fbacked Over49c36.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.731822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-59.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Over49c31.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1692750.6%469 W · 458 L-1.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Over49c30.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6135049.4%173 W · 177 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb0…3182backed Over51c26.32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.921357.7%123 W · 90 L+10.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe544…ab18backed Under50c24.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.247851.3%40 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Over49c21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.821,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeea…0c83backed Under50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.