TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Bucksof Bulls, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,264
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,857

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,264 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e3a…3246backed Bulls51c21,431$10,930 inLost-$10,930.0219954.8%109 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bucks49c20,000$9,800 inWon+$10,199.992,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Bulls51c3,772$1,923 inLost-$1,923.51,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Bulls51c3,049$1,555 inLost-$1,554.9829352.6%154 W · 139 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks50c2,953$1,476 inWon+$1,477.128,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls49c2,678$1,318 inLost-$1,317.579,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3d…55b3backed Bucks49c2,300$1,127 inWon+$1,172.993548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b0…df60backed Bucks51c2,198$1,121 inWon+$1,077.041442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-32.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Bucks51c2,157$1,100 inWon+$1,056.861,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Bulls49c1,928$945 inLost-$944.752,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks49c1,836$900 inWon+$936.44,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls49c1,466$719 inLost-$719.413,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Bucks50c1,000$500 inWon+$50023644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Bucks51c879.8$449 inWon+$431.123850%119 W · 119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Bucks50c550$275 inWon+$27512056.7%68 W · 52 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Bucks49c548.66$270 inWon+$278.723,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd7d5…d4d3backed Bucks51c426.47$217 inWon+$208.975750.9%29 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bulls50c362.25$182 inLost-$182.014,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Bucks51c276.93$140 inWon+$136.511,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cd…61a6backed Bulls51c216.17$110 inLost-$110.255642.9%24 W · 32 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Bucks50c200$100 inWon+$10078652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Bulls46c200$92 inLost-$9280744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Bulls50c200$100 inLost-$99.5391148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Bucks50c198.04$100 inWon+$98.0436450.8%185 W · 179 L-1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Bucks52c165$86 inWon+$79.254351.6%280 W · 263 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bulls49c150$74 inLost-$73.52,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Bulls49c77.75$38 inLost-$38.187750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Bucks51c60$31 inWon+$29.438252.4%200 W · 182 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d21…08d3backed Bulls37c54.5$20 inLost-$20.2125143%108 W · 143 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x926c…a86bbacked Bulls51c50.98$26 inLost-$264332.6%14 W · 29 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-33.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc27f…12a9backed Bucks49c50$25 inWon+$25.56753.7%36 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Bucks54c50$27 inWon+$2343246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Bulls50c45.45$23 inLost-$22.7350651.2%259 W · 247 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Bulls50c35.81$18 inLost-$17.913,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Bulls50c30$15 inLost-$1547045.1%212 W · 258 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x459f…c1f5backed Bucks51c27.5$14 inWon+$13.4812645.2%57 W · 69 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf628…ba6fbacked Bucks50c21.16$11 inWon+$10.588440.5%34 W · 50 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.