NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce0e5c56b1b5e380d23cc3214bda6b436ea3cfa3a108a27b7adee3da1abfa635
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Bulls, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Bulls | 49c | 44,369$21,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,901.25 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Bucks | 51c | 19,873$10,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,737.54 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Bucks | 50c | 9,333$4,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,666.45 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bucks | 50c | 5,269$2,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,633.32 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Bucks | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fd…b634backed Bulls | 51c | 4,081$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,081.31 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks | 51c | 3,426$1,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680.53 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Bucks | 50c | 3,244$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.08 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 50c | 3,178$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.79 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 58c | 3,068$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.24 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9331…4b41backed Bulls | 51c | 1,991$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.35 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Bucks | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Bulls | 52c | 1,600$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.99 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Bucks | 50c | 1,193$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.02 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfedd…32c4backed Bulls | 51c | 1,186$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 48c | 1,173$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.5 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Bucks | 49c | 1,045$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.56 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Bucks | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab44…d88ebacked Bucks | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fca…9d33backed Bulls | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Bucks | 53c | 677.49$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.42 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9781…bc2abacked Bulls | 52c | 610.49$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Bulls | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Bulls | 47c | 552.63$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.98 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Bulls | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53aa…07fcbacked Bucks | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.06 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Bulls | 6c | 496.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Bucks | 49c | 480$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.8 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…3b33backed Bucks | 54c | 354.79$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.2 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Bucks | 48c | 302.99$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.55 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Bulls | 46c | 276.5$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.19 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557d…4ffebacked Bulls | 51c | 241.18$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bucks | 61c | 224.24$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Bulls | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e8…72ccbacked Bulls | 47c | 214.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -9.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…afd5backed Bulls | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed Bulls | 47c | 207.42$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.27 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Bulls | 53c | 200.01$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Bulls | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls | 49c | 167.08$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f32…483dbacked Bulls | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Bucks | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Bucks | 49c | 131$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bulls | 45c | 114$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bulls | 37c | 111.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Bucks | 49c | 110.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Bulls | 46c | 108.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Bucks | 54c | 108.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…027abacked Bulls | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Bulls | 51c | 95.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Bucks | 67c | 79.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Bulls | 47c | 73.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 279 | 43%120 W · 159 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Bucks | 51c | 73.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Bucks | 55c | 56.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Bucks | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…9b14backed Bucks | 52c | 49.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe886…ba86backed Bulls | 50c | 44.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Bulls | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Bucks | 50c | 41.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Bulls | 47c | 39.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…a390backed Bulls | 46c | 33.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Bulls | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66e6…7dc4backed Bulls | 47c | 32.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Bulls | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…370fbacked Bulls | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Bucks | 55c | 22.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Bucks | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Bucks | 55c | 20.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Bulls | 51c | 20.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f5…5c6cbacked Bucks | 52c | 19.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)this page
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Bobby Portis: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Bobby Portis: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Bulls vs. BucksBucks won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.