NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf24a8c72f6f14517288d56d150f924e3f72ff7013d3ff9d7d096af1c998d4105

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bucksof Bulls, Bucks
Resolved: Feb 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,924
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $42,698

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,924 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1117…3532backed Bulls	45c	25,000$11,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,300	1,024	50.8%520 W · 504 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Bucks	55c	20,791$11,435 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,356.07	1,204	55.3%666 W · 538 L	+52.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks	54c	5,935$3,218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,716.66	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6767…d905backed Bulls	44c	2,103$924 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$924	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.19per pick	49cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fca…9d33backed Bulls	47c	1,064$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.9	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Bucks	58c	1,034$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$434.48	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Bulls	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	470	48.5%228 W · 242 L	-18.6wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks	52c	691.9$363 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$328.86	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Bucks	52c	600$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288	416	52.2%217 W · 199 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53aa…07fcbacked Bulls	49c	500$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	90	51.1%46 W · 44 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Bucks	52c	498.07$259 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$239.07	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Bulls	46c	421.86$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.05	627	44.5%279 W · 348 L	-12.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x426f…e76bbacked Bulls	47c	420$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.4	176	44.9%79 W · 97 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Bucks	58c	344.83$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.83	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Bucks	53c	327.7$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.22	1,044	47.5%496 W · 548 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bucks	54c	302.12$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.98	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Bulls	49c	283.33$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.83	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Bucks	51c	217$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.33	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Bulls	42c	209.49$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.99	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Bucks	57c	205.89$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.88	516	51%263 W · 253 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls	44c	200.04$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.62	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf20f…3b33backed Bucks	58c	200$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	183	43.7%80 W · 103 L	-11.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x63f4…83a0backed Bulls	47c	153.79$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.28	63	47.6%30 W · 33 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Bucks	54c	148.15$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.15	195	48.7%95 W · 100 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x410a…2643backed Bucks	53c	145.32$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.3	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+3.8wins	+0.14per pick	45cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Bucks	58c	132.76$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.76	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Bulls	42c	129.5$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.39	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1af4…2e86backed Bulls	47c	127.66$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+27.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f5…bf3dbacked Bulls	46c	113.04$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-3.5wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204e…55eabacked Bulls	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	85	52.9%45 W · 40 L	+5.7wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd097…40eabacked Bulls	47c	95.74$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Bulls	47c	90.51$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.54	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcc7b…5b9ebacked Bulls	47c	74.47$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc711…d8e6backed Bulls	47c	74.47$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Bulls	43c	69.26$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.78	508	41.7%212 W · 296 L	-11.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80b6…051ebacked Bulls	47c	63.83$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+34.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42e2…3d27backed Bulls	47c	63.83$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Bucks	51c	63.81$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.27	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd454…297cbacked Bulls	43c	58.14$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd1…80d8backed Bulls	46c	54.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10bb…a0b7backed Bulls	46c	54.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…9501backed Bulls	47c	53.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe525…0d4ebacked Bulls	47c	53.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7b2…2452backed Bulls	47c	53.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	50%5 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2681…8aeabacked Bulls	47c	53.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9985…9b14backed Bucks	56c	51.91$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.84	87	43.7%38 W · 49 L	-6.2wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc3a…e1f0backed Bulls	49c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Bucks	57c	48.9$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.79	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Bulls	43c	46.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	436	47.9%209 W · 227 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38ee…dc20backed Bulls	46c	43.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.16per pick	50cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c90…9cffbacked Bulls	46c	43.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8557…4e7abacked Bulls	24c	43$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.32	189	57.1%108 W · 81 L	+12.7wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x557d…4ffebacked Bulls	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…79efbacked Bulls	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0115…d2f3backed Bulls	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4c…25bbbacked Bulls	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d06…3b3ebacked Bulls	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d7…076abacked Bulls	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf89c…8937backed Bucks	52c	41.06$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.71	32	78.1%25 W · 7 L	+7.0wins	+0.22per pick	56cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xba35…92bdbacked Bulls	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	259	30.5%79 W · 180 L	-9.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Bucks	57c	37.03$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.83	576	57.8%333 W · 243 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Bulls	49c	36.73$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ea…9406backed Bulls	46c	32.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x95be…9968backed Bucks	53c	26.79$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.59	335	52.8%177 W · 158 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bucks	54c	22.5$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.35	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5b…6e14backed Bucks	57c	21.93$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.43	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d21…08d3backed Bucks	54c	18.65$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.63	251	43%108 W · 143 L	-13.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x02f5…5c6cbacked Bucks	56c	18.32$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.06	67	53.7%36 W · 31 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3d…b56cbacked Bucks	58c	18.02$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.57	373	44.2%165 W · 208 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bulls (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event