Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0a943f422d4d26790a57e07c47de2109b039e476b38294307f6d3042fee6def
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 324.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 272.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 204.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 191.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 15c | 168.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 11c | 149.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 18c | 124.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 112.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 112.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 109.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 18c | 103.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 21c | 93.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 92.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 79c | 91.69$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes | 18c | 79.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 19c | 78.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 21c | 77.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 78c | 71.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 25c | 67.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed Yes | 21c | 63.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…0a43backed Yes | 23c | 56.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 22c | 52.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 28c | 51.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 51.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 80c | 49.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 37.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…5301backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d88…3d2abacked No | 73c | 29.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 72c | 27.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 79c | 24.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 79c | 23.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…35f2backed No | 73c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 78c | 19.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 19.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed No | 78c | 15.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.