Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b841c1c338a6ac874f8fc0da6ac2a889f8713c829d73dd9890e48adf869c1b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 39c | 2,097$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.54 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 501.13$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 41c | 495.8$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.8 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 33c | 472.23$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.88 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 467.37$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.08 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 32c | 463.21$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.39 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 69c | 458.26$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.33 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 41c | 439.23$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.53 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 59c | 383.97$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.43 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 375$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 355$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 70c | 330.39$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 26c | 316.62$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.37 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 303.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…340bbacked Yes | 40c | 263.62$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 222$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 61c | 210$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 62c | 202$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 36c | 199.02$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 41c | 190.1$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 45c | 188.69$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.54 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 44c | 184.55$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 178.33$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 178.22$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 177.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 57c | 163.01$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 159.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 157$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 38c | 140.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 21c | 132.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 36c | 132.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 44c | 128.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 128$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked Yes | 36c | 124.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 122.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 117.13$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 114.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 37c | 114.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 49c | 111.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 20c | 105.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…2ef2backed Yes | 10c | 103.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 100.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 15c | 91.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 25c | 91.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 37c | 91.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b6…a962backed Yes | 31c | 91.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 60c | 90.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 87.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…4501backed Yes | 45c | 84.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 47c | 78.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 43c | 77.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 49c | 75.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 71.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 69.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 69.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 28c | 68.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 38c | 67.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 65c | 66.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 45c | 65.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 39c | 64.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 54c | 64.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 55c | 63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…d1f8backed Yes | 40c | 58.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 57.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fd…db7cbacked Yes | 37c | 53.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1e…5a02backed No | 61c | 53.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 48c | 52.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 39c | 51.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…ee79backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 51.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bf…04aabacked No | 60c | 51.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 43c | 50.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…61dcbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 49.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 65c | 45.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 61c | 41.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 62c | 40.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a847backed No | 62c | 38.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 49c | 36.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 61c | 35.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed No | 60c | 35.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 46c | 34.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.