Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3d46e92178cc233097c09b6784a7ed96d45df655273fe019ac2e5d9373cca63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 28c | 610.53$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.3 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 506.91$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 49c | 472.04$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.32 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 44c | 470.49$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.66 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 342.63$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 297.48$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 69c | 291.72$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.37 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 282.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 49c | 241.51$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.34 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 22c | 240$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 238.62$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 217.98$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.55 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 73c | 205.9$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.08 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 26c | 195.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 188.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 18c | 188.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.51 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 187.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 174.83$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.08 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 174$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 15c | 166$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 153.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 28c | 151.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.04 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 149.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 142.4$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 54c | 134.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 57c | 131.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 31c | 126.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 115$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 105.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 104.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 28c | 101.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 98.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 25c | 88.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 23c | 87.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 22c | 84.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 70c | 83.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 49c | 82.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…340bbacked Yes | 60c | 78.55$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad71…9134backed No | 75c | 77.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 31c | 76.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 14c | 74.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 72c | 72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 24c | 70.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 28c | 68.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 61c | 65.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x22b6…a962backed Yes | 67c | 63.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 29c | 59.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 59.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 72c | 58.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 65c | 55.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 68c | 54.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 49c | 50.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…61dcbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…3c34backed Yes | 22c | 46.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 23c | 46.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 42.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 47c | 38.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 79c | 37.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 41c | 36.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 77c | 35.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 46c | 34.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 46c | 33.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 32c | 33.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 31.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 31.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 72c | 29.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 29.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 63c | 24.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 73c | 22.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 72c | 21.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 74c | 20.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 20.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a74…05b2backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0792…229fbacked No | 70c | 19.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 66c | 18.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 80c | 16.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.