Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1b4af0f5fe6d101185d4479f721eeff6729aa327e6baa00ff582e2a05e7fce0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 45c | 1,294$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 11c | 599.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 11c | 499.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 290.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 20c | 281.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 229.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 223.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 6c | 215.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 10c | 207.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 44c | 199.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…fc14backed No | 59c | 199.38$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 59c | 170.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 13c | 146.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 38c | 135.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 130.05$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 67c | 127.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 61c | 124.58$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 58c | 119.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 40c | 109.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 57c | 107.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 102.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 51c | 98.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 14c | 92.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 53c | 80.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 22c | 79.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 23c | 79.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 62c | 64.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 63.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 59.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 60c | 58.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 57.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 22c | 57.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2c…55cfbacked No | 62c | 54.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 46.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e1…7521backed Yes | 37c | 45.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 45.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 45.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 40c | 44.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 43.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 39.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 52c | 38.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aac…bc3bbacked Yes | 45c | 36.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…ccb3backed No | 57c | 33.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 80c | 31.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 29.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 37c | 28.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 70c | 26.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 23.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 21.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 21.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 63c | 20.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 60c | 19.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…832cbacked No | 75c | 18.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 63c | 16.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed No | 63c | 16.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 69c | 15.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.