Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3d42ca3ebee7e2cf45ca77e91c32b0702bb031620df4ebc6676266819c41272
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 47c | 2,395$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed No | 52c | 907.51$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.29 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…fc14backed Yes | 5c | 830.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…8109backed Yes | 3c | 724.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 317 | 2.5%8 W · 309 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 49c | 540.75$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.21 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 55c | 534.52$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.58 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 503.01$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 474.22$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.76 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 4c | 472.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 4c | 458.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…6bd8backed Yes | 21c | 399.82$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.57 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 10c | 377.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 365.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 359$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 8c | 346.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 62c | 326.87$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.78 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 50c | 287.54$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 55c | 257.89$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.22 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 223.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf5…6a8fbacked Yes | 11c | 179.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 60c | 175.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 6c | 169$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…9e38backed Yes | 68c | 157.76$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.21 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 16c | 151.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 64c | 150.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 148.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 43c | 132.77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 9c | 126.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 11c | 114.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 60c | 113.61$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 58c | 109.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 12c | 101.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 74c | 94.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cd…f8a1backed Yes | 16c | 93.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 73c | 85.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 83.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…791bbacked No | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 82.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 81.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x968e…609abacked Yes | 32c | 79.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee2c…55cfbacked Yes | 17c | 75.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 41c | 67.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 65.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 35c | 60.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 26c | 59.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 53.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 50c | 52.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 68c | 49.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed Yes | 33c | 49.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 49c | 46.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 55c | 46.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 66c | 44.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed No | 65c | 39.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…1d8fbacked Yes | 43c | 37.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes | 65c | 34.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 31c | 33.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 53c | 26.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed Yes | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed No | 63c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 75c | 21.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 19.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 19.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 67c | 18.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…744dbacked Yes | 66c | 17.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.