CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe211d9f1a01a546ec426adaf8cbfee690deb63b6ef9ab0414c373e4d0d359025
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof Spirit, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Astralis | 50c | 2,053$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.25 | 980 | 52.4%514 W · 466 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Spirit | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 352 | 42.9%151 W · 201 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Astralis | 38c | 1,133$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.7 | 716 | 45.9%329 W · 387 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…9c97backed Spirit | 62c | 734.93$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Astralis | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…95fbbacked Spirit | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Spirit | 50c | 477.89$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.95 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Astralis | 50c | 444.1$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.05 | 245 | 38.4%94 W · 151 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Astralis | 43c | 415$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.33 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…ff18backed Spirit | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e3a6backed Spirit | 57c | 389.85$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.63 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Astralis | 39c | 298.85$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Spirit | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 617 | 54.8%338 W · 279 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Spirit | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 420 | 57.6%242 W · 178 L | +19.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Astralis | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Spirit | 59c | 41.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 232 | 34.9%81 W · 151 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe339…c8f3backed Astralis | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…0a4abacked Spirit | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Astralis | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Spirit | 66c | 28.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…5fa9backed Spirit | 61c | 25.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Spirit | 55c | 24.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…9c51backed Spirit | 67c | 24.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group ASpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.