TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pacersof Cavaliers, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,683
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,254

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,683 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers48c5,229$2,486 inLost-$2,485.944,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pacers52c3,919$2,054 inWon+$1,865.138,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Pacers56c3,500$1,945 inWon+$1,5551,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers43c2,105$905 inLost-$904.669,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Pacers57c2,000$1,140 inWon+$86016446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Cavaliers45c277$125 inLost-$124.782,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb203…8e45backed Pacers50c160$80 inWon+$805050%25 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4209…7582backed Pacers57c87.72$50 inWon+$37.7233235.5%118 W · 214 L-27.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe5bc…a233backed Cavaliers34c73$25 inLost-$24.826953.6%37 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Cavaliers44c30$13 inLost-$13.21,05353.5%563 W · 490 L-15.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46a0…f721backed Cavaliers44c28.41$12 inLost-$12.53842.1%16 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83d3…a973backed Pacers63c22.22$14 inWon+$8.2210261.8%63 W · 39 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Pacers59c20.34$12 inWon+$8.3410548.6%51 W · 54 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.