NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26b13b8945d67ef86d2b8264273acea96d548389643dd07fed26d78cfc78900f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 7,853$3,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,267.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 54c | 7,124$3,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,842.51 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 46c | 3,333$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.82 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 55c | 3,083$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.69 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 54c | 2,998$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,618.71 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Under | 45c | 2,150$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.6 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 44c | 1,762$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.33 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 338.04$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.06 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Over | 28c | 299.37$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 133 | 18.8%25 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 250$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.16 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Over | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Over | 58c | 172.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf72…fe1dbacked Over | 71c | 128.17$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 29c | 128.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 108.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 260 | 44.6%116 W · 144 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0efd…a51cbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 90.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Under | 45c | 88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467b…82c3backed Over | 59c | 67.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Under | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…dfa3backed Under | 44c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 45c | 38.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Under | 45c | 35.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…f0cbbacked Over | 58c | 34.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…c4dfbacked Under | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…3ae9backed Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…4b15backed Over | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.