TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,886
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,188

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,886 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over53c3,000$1,590 inLost-$1,59036248.9%177 W · 185 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc933…5366backed Over52c1,884$980 inLost-$979.933545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5224…0de8backed Under44c1,547$681 inWon+$866.315658.9%33 W · 23 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Under48c1,500$720 inWon+$78051753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under47c1,454$689 inWon+$764.662,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under52c1,040$541 inWon+$499.3850754.2%275 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Under50c1,000$500 inWon+$50041652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over56c939.89$526 inLost-$526.312,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Under46c859.91$396 inWon+$464.3527247.8%130 W · 142 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Under44c852.29$375 inWon+$477.282951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over49c612.24$300 inLost-$30033150.8%168 W · 163 L+1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over56c609.25$341 inLost-$341.182,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over50c600$300 inLost-$3002,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65f9…4dd7backed Over56c583$326 inLost-$326.485932.2%19 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over51c449.34$229 inLost-$228.869,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over60c398$240 inLost-$239.628,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Under48c364.73$175 inWon+$189.6635749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655d…b758backed Over50c200$100 inLost-$10024446.7%114 W · 130 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fde…66b2backed Over54c192.59$104 inLost-$1045756.1%32 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under50c159.8$80 inWon+$80.193,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bba…b20fbacked Over56c137.5$77 inLost-$778950.6%45 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Over56c100$56 inLost-$5637850.3%190 W · 188 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ab…f2a9backed Under45c100$45 inWon+$5515247.4%72 W · 80 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f91…7c76backed Under48c100$48 inWon+$529852%51 W · 47 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Over48c100$48 inLost-$4812342.3%52 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under50c82$41 inWon+$40.612,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…ed59backed Over54c55.56$30 inLost-$3010550.5%53 W · 52 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaa9…bad5backed Over56c47.16$26 inLost-$26.415836.2%21 W · 37 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-23.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf4d5…79f9backed Under44c41.27$18 inWon+$23.115046%23 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a6…9347backed Under51c39.22$20 inWon+$19.226155.7%34 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f8…47aabacked Under49c30.61$15 inWon+$15.615655.4%31 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x581b…0290backed Under47c26$12 inWon+$13.786446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8490…3243backed Over71c25.35$18 inLost-$187048.6%34 W · 36 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa747…28cebacked Over78c16.76$13 inLost-$13.141747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3a…ac4dbacked Over79c13$10 inLost-$10.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.